(This story has been updated to reflect Canada beating Cuba to win Pool A.)
It was assumed that the big showdown in Miami between the Dominican Republic and Venezuela would be the highlight of the final day of pool play at the 2026 World Baseball Classic. That was before the United States found itself on the brink of elimination.
Italy shocked Team USA on March 10 in Houston, jumping out to an eight-run lead before holding off a late comeback for an 8-6 win. Pete Crow-Armstrong hit two home runs for the hosts, but Gunnar Henderson and Aaron Judge struck out as the tying runs to end the game. Manager Mark DeRosa sat several of his regular starters, including Alex Bregman, Cal Raleigh and the red-hot Brice Turang, questionable choices considering the U.S. hadn’t locked up a quarterfinal spot even after beating Mexico 5-3 the night before.
Now out of games to play, the USA has to watch tonight’s Mexico vs. Italy game and hope they can still play on. The easiest path for the U.S. is for Italy to win, putting the hosts through as group runner-up. But if Mexico wins and all three teams wind up 3-1 in Pool B, the deciding tiebreaker will be how many runs each team allowed against each other.
Watch WBC games on the new ESPN app
The U.S. allowed 11 runs to Mexico and Italy over 54 recorded outs. For them to advance in case of a Mexico win tonight, Mexico must score at least five runs and win before extra innings. Because Italy is the visiting team tonight, they would record fewer than the standard 27 outs if they lose since Mexico would not need their final turn at bat. The WBC tiebreaker is runs allowed divided by outs recorded; Italy giving up 11 runs over their Mexico and U.S. games would land them in third place.
WBC tiebreaker
Here are the Pool B scenarios for the outcomes of tonight’s Mexico vs. Italy game (assuming a nine-inning game):
How to watch Mexico vs Italy
Watch Mexico vs. Italy live on Fubo (free trial)
WBC schedule today
There are two other key WBC games taking place March 11. The action starts with Canada and Cuba playing in Puerto Rico for Pool A’s second spot in the quarterfinals. And undefeated teams Venezuela and the Dominican Republican square off to decide who wins Pool D in Miami. Here’s how to watch each game (all times Eastern).
WBC standings
The top two teams in each pool advance to the quarterfinal round. Teams that have clinched a quarterfinal berth are marked with an asterisk. Standings accurate as of 6:17 p.m. ET.
Pool A
Pool B
Pool C
Pool D
WBC bracket
Here’s how the playoff bracket looks heading into pool games Wednesday, March 11. All times Eastern.
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Championship
How to watch World Baseball Classic 2026
All World Baseball Classic games will be broadcast on the Fox family of networks. Most will air on Fox, FS1 and FS2, and those games can be streamed live on Fubo, which offers a free trial for new subscribers. Some games will be available only via streaming on either Tubi or the Fox One app. Those can be bundled into the ESPN Unlimited package, which also includes Fox, FS1 and FS2.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Is the US eliminated from World Baseball Classic? How they can advance
Reporting by Dan Rorabaugh, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Palm Beach Post
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
