With just over a month before the GOP primary runoff election, Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in Texas.
In five different polls conducted since the March 3 primary, Paxton is holding a strong lead over the incumbent Cornyn in a closely watched race that could make or break Republicans’ control over the U.S. Senate.
The winner of the May 26 primary runoff will face state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, in the November General Election.
A poll from GQR released March 30 found Paxton leading Cornyn by five percentage points, 47% to 42%, but that only tells part of the story. The poll surveyed 600 likely Texas Republican primary runoff voters between March 19 and March 23.
“It is important to note that Paxton’s are much more motivated to vote in the upcoming runoff than Cornyn’s,” a memo accompanying the GQR poll noted. “(85%) of Paxton’s voters say they are a 10 on a 0-to-10 scale, compared with 70% of Cornyn’s voters.”
A poll from Quantus Insights released March 24 found Paxton with an even larger lead over Cornyn, 48.8% to 41.3%.
“The shape of this runoff is now plain,” a Quantus news release stated. “Ken Paxton leads John Cornyn 48.8% to 41.3%, with just 9.9% undecided. In most campaigns, that would leave room for a late break. Here, it leaves less than it seems, because this is not a loose electorate. It is a settled one. Fully 88.1% say they are certain to vote, and 78.7% say their choice is definite. That is the central fact of the race. The contest is still live, but the pool of movable voters is limited.”
The Quantus poll likewise found that respondents rated Paxton more effective than Cornyn, 51% to 39%, and more favorable, 56% to 43%.
A separate poll from Change Research released March 19 showed a much closer race, with 42% of respondents backing Paxton compared to 39% for Cornyn. The poll surveyed 811 likely Texas Republican primary runoff voters between March 17 and March 19.
“Paxton leads with Republicans who identify as strong Republicans, MAGA Republicans, Independents who lean Republican, voters under 65, non-college graduates, evangelical Christians, and voters in Houston, small metros, and in rural areas,” a memo accompanying the Change Research poll stated. “Cornyn leads with Republicans who don’t identify strongly with the party, non MAGA Republicans, voters over 65, college graduates, non-evangelical Christians, and those in the Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio metro areas.”
Additionally, the poll found that former supporters of U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who was defeated in the March primary, are ebbing toward Paxton, 46% to 33%.
A poll from Public Policy Polling and the Texas Justice Fund released March 13 found Paxton leading Cornyn by only three percentage points, 45% to 42%. The poll was conducted between March 5 and March 6 among 565 likely Republican runoff voters.
“(Among) the true MAGA voters who approve of President Trump,” a poll memo stated, “Paxton has a double-digit lead over Cornyn at 49-37, which helps account for his three-point edge in the head-to-head.”
The final poll from Texas Public Opinion Research released March 9, less than a week after the primary, showed Paxton leading Cornyn 49% to 41%. The poll surveyed 781 likely Republican runoff voters between March 7 and March 8.
“Ken Paxton enters the race with a clear advantage among the Republican primary runoffelectorate,” a news release on the poll stated. “Hunt’s voters are breaking Paxton’s way, and even a (President Donald) Trump endorsement of Cornyn is not enough to put the incumbent in the lead over Paxton.”
Adam Powell covers government and politics for the El Paso Times and can be reached via email at apowell@elpasotimes.com.
This article originally appeared on El Paso Times: Polls show Paxton ahead in Texas’ Republican US Senate primary runoff
Reporting by Adam Powell, El Paso Times / El Paso Times
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