The battleground congressional district held by Rep. Mike Lawler has an unusual voting pattern in one town that poses a big unknown for the upcoming Democratic primary and November showdown for a critical House seat.
The large Hasidic and Orthodox community in the Rockland County town of Ramapo strongly supported both Lawler and President Donald Trump and voted almost universally for them in 2024. And yet many of those voters are registered as Democrats and can therefore help choose Lawler’s next opponent in the five-way primary for New York’s 17th District on June 23.
A USA TODAY Network analysis of Ramapo areas with the most lopsided voting results in 2024 shows those Republican-voting Democrats number in the thousands, more than enough to swing a close race.
Some 27 election districts, mostly in and around the Hasidic villages of New Square and Kaser and in the hamlet of Monsey, voted 97% for both Trump and Lawler, with only a smattering of votes for their Democratic opponents in each, according to a detailed voting breakdown from the Rockland County Board of Elections.
The current Democratic enrollment in those same election districts: 9,082.
That raises two big questions for one of the nation’s most competitive House races: Will registered Democrats who backed Lawler as a bloc in the last race turn out in force in June to decide which Democrat he faces next? And how will they vote then in the Nov. 3 election when Lawler’s on the ballot?
At stake in the Hudson Valley race is a House seat that will help determine which party controls the House for Trump’s last two years in office. As if to underscore its importance, Trump himself is set to visit Rockland on Friday, May 22, to hold a campaign-style event with Lawler at Rockland Community College in Suffern.
Five Democrats are vying next month to take on the second-term Republican for New York’s 17th District, which takes in all of Rockland and Putnam counties and parts of Westchester and Dutchess. Beth Davidson, Cait Conley and Effie Phillips-Staley are the leading contenders, based on funding, endorsements and internal polls. Also running are Mike Sacks and John Cappello.
Concerns about “DINO” voters in NY-17 race
Take New Square as an example. Its 2024 results were as close to unanimous as an election can come, with votes of 3,513-13 for Trump over Kamala Harris and 3,478-24 for Lawler over former Rep. Mondaire Jones in the village’s five election districts, according to county data.
Yet the village has almost twice as many Democratic voters as Republicans in current enrollment records.
One Democratic leader in Rockland has studied the same numbers and is sounding an alarm as the primary nears about Ramapo “DINOs” — Democrats in name only — who helped re-elect Lawler.
“The bloc turns out in Democratic primaries,” Liza Barrie, chairwoman of the Orangetown Democratic Committee, said in a statement. “Here is the crux: Even if the DINOs’ preferred Democrat is nominated in the primary next month, it is reasonable to expect they will be dumped by the bloc in November.”
“Come fall, these DINOs will vote for Republican Lawler, just like they voted for Trump and Lawler last time,” Barrie added.
Her analysis zeroed in on 32 Ramapo districts where 7,139 registered Democrats cast ballots in the 2024 House race. Jones received only 176 votes in those areas, suggesting that just 2.5% of the Democratic voters who went to the polls supported the Democratic candidate.
To illustrate the unique crossover voting in Ramapo, Barrie released a map showing the contrast in voting patterns by Democratic voters across Ramapo, the largest of Rockland’s five towns with a population of nearly 160,000. Much of it is a field of blue where voting went for Jones as expected. At the center are the bright red areas around New Square, Kaser and Monsey that went heavily for Lawler.
Barrie drew a link to Trump’s upcoming visit, arguing the president is coming to shore up a critical voting bloc for Lawler.
“Lawler has built his margins on Ramapo’s bloc voting,” she said. “Trump’s visit is part of protecting that. Lawler needs these voters to win in November.”
Lawler’s campaign declined to respond to Barrie’s statement.
Orthodox leader doubts voter interest in Dem primary
One politically active leader in Ramapo’s Orthodox community cast doubts on both the prospect of a big primary turnout by those voters and the notion that Trump’s visit is helping secure Orthodox votes for Lawler.
“The Trump-Lawler Democrats are not too invested in what’s happening on the Democratic side,” Yossi Gestetner told the USA TODAY Network, suggesting that rank-and-file voters are paying little attention to the would-be challengers and have little incentive to go to the polls for the primary.
Gestetner pointed out Trump is coming to Rockland on the first day of the Jewish holiday of Shavous, when observant Jews can’t drive or use phones and are unlikely to attend Trump’s rally with Lawler unless they live close enough to walk. He argued that timing undercuts the idea that the event was arranged to bolster Lawler’s Orthodox support.
Not that Lawler needed the president’s help, in Gestetner’s view. He said Lawler has cemented that backing by delivering on the constituent service he promised and fighting to raise the state and local tax deduction in last year’s package of federal tax and spending cuts.
“Lawler doesn’t need Trump’s support to get votes in the Orthodox community,” Gestetner said. “He’s earned every one of those, vote by vote, block by block.” He chuckled and added, “Pun intended.”
Other Rockland Dems weigh in on NY-17 primary
Rockland County Democratic Chairman Larry Toole praised all the primary candidates and Davidson in particular when contacted by the USA TODAY Network. He declined to discuss the large number of Lawler-supporting Democrats in Ramapo and how they may vote in the primary and general elections.
“I’m looking forward to all Democrats deciding who they want to vote for at the polls,” he said.
Toole said Davidson has both his personal endorsement and that of the Rockland Democrats’ executive committee. Davidson is a Rockland County legislator and longtime Nyack resident with political ties in the county — an asset she has stressed since entering the race more than a year ago.
Greg Sheehan, co-chairman of Clarkstown’s Democratic Committee, said questions about the role Ramapo’s Republican-voting Democrats may play in the 17th District race have stoked divisions in the party. The Clarkstown Democrats’ executive committee recently endorsed Davidson in the primary but in a closely split vote of 4-3.
Chris McKenna covers government and politics for The Journal News and USA TODAY Network. Reach him at CMcKenna@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: As Trump-Lawler rally nears, Dem warns about Rockland’s GOP-voting Dems
Reporting by Chris McKenna, New York State Team / Rockland/Westchester Journal News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
