Matthew Stafford will return to the Los Angeles Rams in 2026 at age 38, putting him among the oldest starting quarterbacks in the NFL. He may not be the league’s oldest for this upcoming season — Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco could also be back — but Stafford’s age will still loom large as the Rams try to make another Super Bowl run.
Stafford’s 2025 MVP season showed that elite play is still possible deep into a quarterback’s career. Still, Father Time remains undefeated, and how long Stafford can keep performing at that level is the biggest question facing the Rams heading into 2026.
So before Stafford takes the field again, it’s worth looking at how quarterbacks aged 38 or older have historically fared.
Since 1950, 18 different quarterbacks have started at least 13 games in a season at age 38 or older. Several did it multiple times, creating 36 total qualifying seasons. Of those, 19 resulted in at least 10 wins, while only five topped 12 wins. None exceeded 13.
In broad terms, that gives a quarterback Stafford’s age about a 52.7% chance of winning 10 or more games and just a 13.9% chance of winning more than 12 in a given season.
That outlook improves significantly when narrowing the lens to the modern era. From 2015 to 2025, there were 18 such seasons produced by just six quarterbacks: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Josh McCown. In that span, quarterbacks aged 38 or older won at least 10 games 12 times — a 66.7% success rate — and reached 12 wins in seven seasons (38.9%).
Regular-season success, of course, only tells part of the story. Five of those six quarterbacks reached the playoffs at least once, though postseason success was far more limited. Only Brady and Brees won playoff games, and Brady remains the clear outlier. Between ages 38 and 44, he made the playoffs eight times, reached four Super Bowls and won three of them — even sneaking in during an eight-win season in 2022.
Statistically, quarterbacks over 38 in the past decade have held up well. Across those 18 modern instances, they averaged a 66.5% completion rate, 4,167 passing yards, 28.8 touchdowns, and 9.7 interceptions in seasons of at least 13 games.
For Stafford and the Rams, the formula isn’t complicated. If he continues to play anywhere near the level of Brady, Rodgers or Brees — a group he already belongs to statistically — age doesn’t have to be a dealbreaker. As long as Stafford stays healthy, history suggests the Rams’ chances in 2026 remain very real.
This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: How have 38-year-old QBs fared throughout NFL history?
Reporting by Oliver G., Rams Wire / Rams Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
