The Los Angeles Rams have a star-studded roster, and with 2026 bringing a new fantasy season, owners are looking to pluck players for their own campaigns. The Rams’ No. 1-ranked offense continually lit up scoreboards last season through a diverse passing attack, paired with an evolving run game.
The result was Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams becoming the team’s main threats, while their touchdowns were spread across the roster with Nacua, Williams, Davante Adams, and Colby Parkinson finishing as the team’s top scorers.
Adams led the NFL in touchdown receptions with 14. That’s the third time he’s achieved that mark in his career, while Parkinson hit a career high with eight touchdowns. Parkinson established himself as the team’s TE1 after Tyler Higbee went down with an injury.
Recently, ESPN’s Mike Clay named Adams and Parkinson as players who are projected to score fewer touchdowns in 2026, compared to their 2025 output. Clay used statistical analysis from over a decade to support his overall point.
Here’s part of his methodology and research:
During the 2012 to 2024 seasons, there were 263 instances in which a player totaled at least 10 touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those 263, a whopping 213 (81.0%) scored fewer touchdowns the next season and the average change was a decrease of 4.8. Of the 64 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 61 (95.3%) scored fewer times the next year (average dip of 8.0). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018), Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014) and Kyren Williams (15 in 2023, 16 in 2024).
Every player who scored 14-plus TDs in 2024 found the end zone less often in 2025: Jahmyr Gibbs (20 to 18), James Cook (18 to 14), Derrick Henry (18 to 16), Ja’Marr Chase (17 to 8), Williams (16 to 13), Josh Jacobs (16 to 14), Bijan Robinson (15 to 11), Saquon Barkley (15 to 9) and Jalen Hurts (14 to 8).
Davante Adams
Adams is in a tough spot, as his 14 touchdowns in 2025 put him in a statistical predicament. Since 2012, the only three players to score more than their 14 touchdowns from the year prior were running backs. While Williams and Gurley played under Sean McVay, their usage either remained dramatically high or increased to that level.
Adams has a chance, as he remains the team’s No. 1 red zone threat. However, another part of Clay’s analysis was Williams’ decrease in touchdowns from 2024 to 2025. That was due to Adams’ inclusion. With Terrance Ferguson being prepped to become another red zone threat, Ferguson could be the piece that takes away from Adams’ targets. Ferguson scored twice in the Rams’ final two games of the 2025 season and was on the field for the Rams’ final red zone play in the NFC Championship Game.
While Ferguson wasn’t the No. 1 option, he was the player Matthew Stafford ended up targeting with a last-second throw.
Colby Parkinson
Parkinson falls in the same category as Adams because second-year players in Sean McVay’s offense who often take a dramatic jump in production struggle to maintain that level if they’re not a top option. Not only that, it’s rare for tight ends in the McVay offense to continue top production into Year 3, and while Parkinson’s second year with the Rams was career-changing, he also has the history of the NFL – paired with McVay’s lack of generating consistent tight end production – working against him.
The good news is that time and fate are on Parkinson’s side. He’s still the Rams’ TE1 in every personnel package, and with the Rams redefining tight end usage via their 13-personnel offense, that could be the glimmer Parkinson needs to establish himself as a consistent threat. Parkinson is also a puzzling player because he will make amazing catches, like the game-winner in the wild-card game, but also drop lay-ups.
If he can tighten up his operation, something he’s done before, he sits in a perfect position to grow as Stafford’s safety valve. He is also in a contract year, giving him more motivation to be great.
This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: Analyst predicts 2 Rams players who will score fewer TDs in 2026
Reporting by Brock Vierra, Rams Wire / Rams Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Brock Vierra, Rams Wire | USA TODAY Network
