The Green Bay Packers signed wide receiver Christian Watson to a four-year, $110.5 million contract extension on Thursday, locking up one of their key offensive weapons for the long haul.
It is the second new contract they have handed Watson in as many years, after inking him to a one-year extension last offseason, giving the player and the team a level of security as he recovered from an ACL injury.
Watson made good on that show of faith, playing the best football of his career, which was even more impressive given he was returning from a serious injury. Now, the Packers have rewarded him with a lucrative contract which ties him to Green Bay through 2030, which will be his age 31 season.
The contract raised some eyebrows nationally due to Watson’s lack of counting stats through four seasons, mostly due to a variety of injuries.
His best single-season yardage came last year and was only 647. Excluding rookie Carnell Tate, no other receiver with so few yards in their best season has an average annual value (AAV) of more than $11.7 million (Jalen Nailor).
Watson’s AAV is $27.6 million, which ranks 16th highest at his position, sitting between Jaylen Waddle and D.J. Moore. His teammate Jayden Reed, who has put up multiple 800+ yard seasons, only has an AAV of $16.7 million.
While Watson’s contract may seem rich on the face of it, the underlying numbers show his quality, and that his impact on Green Bay’s offense cannot be overstated.
In 2025, he ranked ninth among 91 receivers in yards per route run (Y/RR) which is one of the best metrics for wide receiver efficiency. His 2.28 Y/RR puts him just behind Drake London and right ahead of Nico Collins and Ja’Marr Chase. Those three players average an AAV of $35 million.
Although he only had 647 yards in 2025, that came in only 11 games. Had he put up the same kind of production over a full season, Watson would have been right at 1,000 yards, which in a Packers offense that loves to spread the ball around, would have been very noteworthy.
Watson also scored seven touchdowns in those 11 games and only dropped one pass. Of 117 wide receivers who ran at least 200 routes last season, he ranked third in explosive plays per route.
Watson’s ability to create explosive plays at any moment is extremely valuable, and his field-stretching skills demand attention, opening up opportunities for teammates underneath.
Since he entered the league, the Packers offense has put up 0.088 expected points added (EPA) per play with Watson on the field. For reference, the Dallas Cowboys offense put up 0.08 EPA per play this season, which ranked fifth in the NFL.
When Watson is not on the field, Green Bay’s EPA per play has dropped to 0.024. The Steelers and Seahawks produced 0.02 EPA per play in 2025, which ranked 14th and 15th respectively. Simply put, he is a game-changer.
Of course, Watson’s injury history cannot be easily hand-waved away. He has played in 12 regular season games per year on average due to a variety of ailments over the years.
However, he did play 15 games in 2024 and did not miss a game last year through injury after returning from the ACL tear. It was soft tissue injuries that plagued Watson early in his career, but not so much lately, which is a positive sign.
Moreover, the injury risk appears to be factored into his new contract. While the $27.6 million AAV looks gaudy on paper, Watson’s signing bonus is only $31 million. If Green Bay has continued their usual contractual precedent, that may be the only guaranteed money in the deal.
If that is the case, $31 million in fully guaranteed money would only rank 26th among wide receivers, and only 28% of the total value of his contract would be fully guaranteed.
Assuming Drake London’s new contract has a higher percentage of fully guaranteed money, that would mean Watson ranks 36th among the 37 second-contract receivers earning at least $30 million in total value, in terms of percentage of their contracts which are fully guaranteed.
Jayden Reed’s contract may be worth $60 million less in total, but his $20 million signing bonus means 39.8% of his contract is fully guaranteed. Alec Pierce, who signed a similar deal in terms of AAV to Watson in March, has 52.6% of his contract fully guaranteed.
If Watson’s injury issues crop up again, one would assume the Packers will be able to get out of the contract pretty painlessly.
Another thing to consider is the one-year extension Watson agreed with the Packers last year, which was for only $11 million, with a $6 million signing bonus, which is effectively what he is playing on this season.
If that mini extension is factored into his overall extension, Watson’s contract is more like a five-year, $121.5 million deal, which averages $24.3 million per year, dropping his AAV rank down a few spots to 20th, between Devonta Smith and Courtland Sutton.
Getting Watson to sign that one-year extension looks like a masterstroke from general manager Brian Gutekunst, and has saved the team millions.
This extension is a win for both parties, as Watson has the opportunity to be paid like one of the best receivers in the NFL, which he has been when on the field, and the Packers still have potential outs if the injury bug strikes.
Between Watson, Reed and Matthew Golden, Green Bay has its core of wide receivers tied down for the foreseeable future.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Christian Watson contract analysis: Packers lock down most valuable WR
Reporting by Mark Oldacres, Packers Wire / Packers Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Mark Oldacres, Packers Wire | USA TODAY Network
