As renovations continue at Belmont Park, the Belmont Stakes will for the second consecutive year be staged at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Once again, “The Test of the Champion” will not quite live up to its moniker, as the usual Belmont Stakes distance of 1½ miles is cut to 1¼ at Saratoga. Yet, that does little to take away the intrigue of this, the third leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown.
The 10 furlongs is the same as the Kentucky Derby. The horses that finished 1-2-3 at the Derby on May 3 – Sovereignty, Journalism and Baez – are all entered in the Belmont on June 7. It’ll be a rematch (three-match?) between three excellent horses, one of them (Preakness winner Journalism) possibly an all-time great. There’s also a quality, Bob-Baffert-trained speed horse, Rodriguez, in the mix.
With an eight-horse field, it will not be easy to cash a big ticket at the Belmont, but it will be wonderful television, nonetheless. The favorites are Journalism (No. 7 gate, 8-5 odds), Sovereignty (No. 2, 2-1), Baeza (No. 6, 4-1) and Rodriguez (No. 3, 6-1). Also of note: Crudo (No. 5, 15-1) is a speed horse who is expected to get out front with Rodriguez, while Hill Road (No. 1, 10-1) is the deep closer in the field.
Showers are in the forecast for Saturday, and there is a possibility that the track will be as sloppy as the one at Churchill Downs was on Derby day.
Belmont picks are in at The Dispatch’s horse racing desk, which is comprised of Nicole “The Professor” Kraft, a horse racing journalist, college teacher and lifetime equestrian; Scott “Dutch” Davis, former horse racing editor at The Dispatch; Bob “The Clanchise” Clancy, former horse racing editor at the Hartford Courant; and yours truly. Three of us know what we’re talking about.
Nicole Kraft’s picks for the Belmont
Kraft rode Journalism to a second-place finish in the Derby and an impressive victory in the Preakness. She is now dismounting.
“I love Journalism – the horse and the profession – so my heart tells me to stick with him,” Kraft said. “My head, however, says three races in five weeks is a big ask. The bump-and-battle Preakness was a heroic endeavor, one that might’ve taken more out of him than we know.”
Kraft is the bold one here. She’s going with Crudo, who has two gate-to-wire victories in four starts but has yet to be exposed to the quality that the Belmont field possesses.
“I was trackside for his impressive Sir Barton win on the Preakness undercard, and his pedigree (says) 1¼ miles should not be a problem,” Kraft said of the progeny of Triple Crown winner Justify.
“With four Belmont wins, trainer Todd Pletcher knows how to get this job done,” she added.
Crudo is owned by celebrity chef Bobby Flay. It’s tough to beat Bobby Flay.
“Baeza is the horse on the rise, and his show spot in the Derby proves he can go this distance,” Kraft said. “I had Sovereignty on my Derby card and would be an idiot to leave him off here, since that win from far off the pace could be easily duplicated at the same distance at Saratoga.”
Scott Davis’ picks for the Belmont
Davis is like most who are attempting to handicap this race: He’ll be paying close attention to the early pace.
“It looks like Rodriguez and Crudo will try to control the race from the front,” Davis said. “Rodriguez has performed well against the top three and has a Hall-of-Fame jockey, Mike Smith. Crudo is less seasoned but has shown some big talent in two front-running romps. He, too, has a Hall-of-Fame jockey in John Velasquez. Should be an interesting battle on the pace.”
And after that?
“Journalism and Sovereignty will be maneuvering for stalking positions. Assuming all three get a clear shot in the stretch, I’m going to go with Journalism to find a way to get a nose in front in a blanket finish. I’ll take Sovereignty second, followed by Rodriguez and Baeza.”
Bob Clancy’s picks for the Belmont
Clancy has three bullet points. In his words:
1. Journalism convinced me with that amazing acceleration in the Preakness. Victory seemed unattainable after the severe bumping and jostling in the upper stretch. Trainer Michael McCarthy knows he has the best horse. He wouldn’t be at Saratoga otherwise. Message to jockey Umberto Rispoli: KEEP THIS HORSE OUT OF TROUBLE! Looks like he’ll be in a prime spot behind the speedsters. Might take command turning for home and settle a score with Sovereignty.
2. Baeza has been closing on Journalism twice this spring. This one can make a serious impact if he takes that much-needed step forward. Has still beaten only maidens, but jockey Flavien Prat stays. Lots to like.
3. Sovereignty will be very tough if he gets another good setup. Overtook Journalism in very impressive fashion to win the Kentucky Derby at this distance, which could be the key. History says horses don’t win the Derby, skip the Preakness, then win the Belmont. But this is obviously different. Rodriguez (speed) and Hill Road (from well back) are both capable of sneaking into the trifecta.
Michael Arace’s picks for the Belmont
Sires are prolific. Mares foal once every spring. Puca, a daughter of Big Brown – winner of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness in 2008 – is a mother of certain note. She gave birth to Mage, the 2023 Derby champion, and to Dornoch, the 2024 Belmont champion. It’s kind of crazy for a mare, who gets one shot a year at glory, having kids who win Triple Crown races in successive years.
Puca gave birth to Baeza. Three-peat?
If this year’s Belmont is akin to this year’s Derby – a 10-furlong slog on a sloppy track – it’s quite possible we’ll see another shootout between Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza. Who’ll win? I’m looking at the way Baeza ran through the wire at Churchill Downs and thinking that this Puca progeny can push through at Saratoga Springs.
I’ve also got Sovereignty, Journalism and Hill Road on my card.
Good luck.
marace@dispatch.com
How to watch the 2025 Belmont Stakes
The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes will take place on Saturday, June 7. Post time is 7:05 p.m., and the race will air on FOX.
It will also livestream on the FOX Sports app and FOXSports.com.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Journalism, with a score to settle, can prove greatness at Belmont Stakes | Arace
Reporting by Michael Arace, Columbus Dispatch / The Columbus Dispatch
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