While Tropical Storm Melissa brews in the central Caribbean Oct. 23, meteorologists are raising the alarm on the storm’s potential strength, and where its path could lead.
“It goes without saying, this is a very challenging track forecast,” the National Hurricane Center said in an Oct. 22 forecast discussion, USA TODAY reported. In addition, “the intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large part related to the track uncertainty.”
There’s also a chance that Melissa could be “the most impactful storm of the 2025 season,” said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in a Substack post on Oct. 22.
“The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. “More of a westward track would tend to spare Hispaniola from the heaviest rain and flooding.”
“The chances of a direct U.S. hit from Melissa are low right now, but it is still an option, should the tropical system make it into the western Caribbean,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva added.
Where is Tropical Storm Melissa now?
See Tropical Storm Melissa’s current location and projected path with our online tracker below:
According to current projections as of 9:30 a.m. Thursday, Melissa could become a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday, Oct. 25, with potential to become as strong as a Category 4 hurricane by Oct. 28.
Will Melissa impact the New York City-metro area?
According to an AccuWeather report, potential impacts on the mainland United States could be limited to the Florida Peninsula, “especially the lower portion of the peninsula and the Keys.”
Texas, Louisiana, areas of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida panhandles should avoid the storm thanks to strong westerly winds driven by the jet stream.
“There is some wind shear (disruptive breezes) that was holding the intensity of Melissa back right now and perhaps in the future,” Rayno said. “However, water temperatures in the path of Melissa in the Caribbean are in the upper 80s (farenheit).” The approximate minimum temperature for tropical development is 78-80 degrees, AccuWeather said.
The storm is expected to linger in the Caribbean for a few days, according to AccuWeather. Potential impacts in the area could include life-threatening flooding and mudslides, as well as power outages and damaging winds. The impact is expected to be more severe in the Western Caribbean, with the worst “extreme” impacts projected in Jamaica and on the island of Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Depending on how Melissa survives beyond the Greater Antilles will determine any impacts in the Bahamas and South Florida.
Even if the storm’s center remains at sea, there’s still potential for impacts farther north along the East Coast, such as more rain, winds and rough seas along the Eastern Seaboard during the last week of October, AccuWeather said.
According to the National Weather Service, there is a projected limited and elevated risk of marine hazard along the Long Island Sound shore and Atlantic coast of Long Island starting Monday.
Contributing: USA TODAY’s Doyle Rice and Gabe Huarari
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Will Tropical Storm Melissa hit New York? See the storm’s path
Reporting by Ashley Catherine Fontones, Rockland/Westchester Journal News / Rockland/Westchester Journal News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
