The Chicago Bears defied expectations last season during Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach, going from worst to first with an 11-6 record, winning the NFC North and thrilling the league with their fourth quarter comebacks.
Heading into the 2026 season, it appears the Bears will have to defy expectations once again as they’re slated to play the most difficult schedule (according to last year’s results) and many believe they’re at risk of not only failing to repeat as NFC North champs but missing the postseason altogether.
According to ESPN’s Dan Graziano, it’s not an overreaction to believe that Chicago’s difficult schedule could result in them missing the playoffs in Johnson’s second season.
The last team to win a playoff game after entering the season with the hardest schedule by that metric was the 2016 Falcons. Over the past 10 seasons, seven of those teams missed the playoffs entirely.
Plus, the Bears won an NFC North division in which literally every other team had a winning record last season. The Lions and Vikings should bounce back to contender status, and the Packers were a playoff team last season along with the Bears. Chicago plays all three of those teams — plus the Bills — over the final month of the season.
The division and the schedule look tough enough that it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Bears take a step back — albeit a temporary one — in 2026. Remember how we all felt about the Commanders this time last year? Progress is not always linear, and the 5-12 Commanders of 2025 are a testament to that after they reached the NFC Championship Game in quarterback Jayden Daniels’ 2024 rookie season.
It won’t be easy for Chicago to retain their division title and return to the postseason, as they’ll face a tough slate that includes three consecutive prime-time games from Weeks 7-9 (vs. New England Patriots, at Seattle Seahawks, vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers), as well as holiday games on Thanksgiving (at Detroit Lions) and Christmas (vs. Green Bay Packers). The Bears will also close out the year with three consecutive NFC North games, which could determine who wins the division.
For what it’s worth, Chicago had a more challenging strength of schedule last season before rolling to an 11-6 record and a division title. Then again, strength of schedule doesn’t mean anything at this point. Teams have already undergone big changes on their roster, and they’ll be more different between now and when the season kicks off.
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This article originally appeared on Bears Wire: ESPN says Bears at risk of missing playoffs due to tough 2026 schedule
Reporting by Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire / Bears Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
