Chances are dropping for a tropical storm to strengthen in the northeastern Gulf, but that doesn’t mean Florida won’t feel any impacts from the disturbance.
An area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend over the northeastern Gulf and then move slowly northeast early next week.
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Heavy rain is possible in portions of Florida, depending on the exact location and track, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.
The Weather Prediction Center is predicting around 3-5 inches of rain along the coast and across Florida’s Big Bend associated with the potential area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf.
In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Elida is expected to strengthen into a hurricane tonight or early July 17.
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The National Hurricane Center is also watching another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic, along with two tropical waves.
“It will be especially important to closely monitor every tropical wave this season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email
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“Some tropical waves may remain disorganized while crossing the Atlantic, only to develop and intensify once they reach the exceptionally warm waters near the United States.”
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 16.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
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Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No. Saharan dust and strong wind shear has been making environmental conditions difficult for anything tropical to develop.
“So far, we believe the chance of a tropical depression or storm forming in this area is low, but probably represents the best chance for tropical development throughout the Atlantic basin prior to the end of July,” DaSilva said.
The National Hurricane Center said July 16 there’s a low chance for tropical development in the Gulf over the weekend.
The only named storm so far this year has been Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed June 17. On average, the second named storm of the Atlantic season forms by July 17.
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The second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be Bertha.
What impacts could Florida feel this weekend?
Rainfall looks to be the biggest threat regardless of development or official designation, DaSilva said.
“If anything develops in the Gulf, the storm would likely move into the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area, bringing the chance for flooding rain across portions of the southeastern United States,” according to AccuWeather via email July 15.
“While rainfall will be welcome across portions of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia and South Carolina due to an ongoing drought, the flooding risk can be increased due to dry soil. This dry, hard soil can allow the water to run off instead of being absorbed right away.”
“Mid-level moisture is limited and upper-level winds are marginal, so whether something organizes or not the primary impact will be enhanced rain chances in Florida and the coastal Southeast,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
“Otherwise, the tropical Atlantic is sheared out, dusty, quiet, and set to stay that way through the end of July,” Truchelut said.
“Regardless of any tropical development, people in northern Florida and other parts of the Southeast will likely see tropical downpours from this system,” Fox forecasters said.
“Heavy rainfall is possible locally, depending on the exact location and track,” the National Weather Service Tampa Bay said.
“It is too early to determine impacts,” the National Weather Service Tallahassee said as it suggested residents check back regularly for updates.
National Hurricane Center watching 2 disturbances, 2 tropical waves
The National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. July 16, was watching two areas with a low potential for development and two tropical waves.
Northeastern Gulf of America: An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the southeastern United States early next week.
Eastern tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands remain disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive environment, and further development is not expected.
There were two tropical waves out there:
Tropical Storm Elida expected to become hurricane soon as Pacific remains active
In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Elida is expected to strengthen into a hurricane Thursday night or early July 17.
The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring xx tropical disturbances.
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
‘It only takes one.’ Always be prepared for hurricanes
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall tomake it an active season,” CSU said. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
“The northern and eastern Gulf, the Carolina coast and the western Caribbean remain areas where rapid tropical development can occur,” according to AccuWeather. “Even in a below-average year for tropical storms and hurricanes, it only takes one storm to cause significant loss of life and catastrophic damage.”
“We want people to pay attention to the forecast, because those warm waters can allow for rapid intensification, and the forecast can evolve rapidly,” DaSilva said.
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“We could see development very quickly close to home, so it’s something people need to watch closely.”
Florida weather radar for July 16, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Is there a tax holiday in Florida for hurricane supplies?
No. On Aug. 1, 2025, the sales tax on specific hurricane supplies was permanently removed.
Among the items now permanently exempt from sales taxes are:
Bottled water, first aid kits, and many food items purchased at the grocery store were tax-freeprior to the passage of the permanent exemptions added in 2025.
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: What’s happening in the Gulf and how could Florida be impacted?
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
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By Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
