A low-pressure system that could form over the northeastern Gulf this weekend could bring heavy rain and localized flooding to parts of Florida next week, regardless of whether it develops into a named storm.
The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days, with some gradual organization possible between Sunday and Tuesday.
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But forecasters say the biggest concern is not wind — it is rainfall.
“We’re still expecting some pretty heavy rain across coastal areas of Florida, anywhere from essentially Tampa up through northern Florida, the Big Bend and the Panhandle,” AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told the USA TODAY Network.
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Will this become Tropical Storm Bertha 2026?
Right now, development is not guaranteed.
The longer the system stays over the warm waters of the Gulf, the more opportunity it has to organize. But if it moves quickly across Florida, it may not have enough time to strengthen.
“The longer it stays over the Gulf, I think the better chance it has of becoming a named storm,” DaSilva said. “If it gets pulled across Florida quickly, then it probably would not have enough time to organize.”
The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days.
If that westward track materializes, the flooding threat could expand to parts of Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama.
Two possible paths forecasters are watching
The system’s eventual track remains uncertain.
Despite lingering uncertainty, DaSilva said residents shouldn’t compare this system to hurricanes like Helene.
“As of right now, we’re not expecting this to cause major issues in the southern Appalachians,” he said. Even if it crosses Florida, the heaviest rain would likely stay near the coast rather than reaching inland mountain communities.
Florida’s biggest threat is flooding rain
The system could bring heavy rain from the Tampa area north through Florida’s Big Bend, northern Florida and the Panhandle.
DaSilva said drought conditions across the state could increase the risk of runoff and localized flooding.
“The soil can be hard, and when it rains a lot, that water runs off instead of being absorbed right away,” he said.
The rainfall could provide relief for drought-stricken areas, including parts of Tampa and the Big Bend where extreme drought conditions remain. But too much rain too quickly could overwhelm drainage systems and trigger flooding.
What happened to Tropical Storm Arthur?
Tropical Storm Arthur has already formed this hurricane season and is not the same system currently being monitored in the Gulf of Mexico.
Arthur developed in June after the National Hurricane Center began tracking a low-pressure area in the Bay of Campeche. The system moved into the Gulf of Mexico, where it strengthened into a tropical storm before making landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a minimal tropical storm.
Arthur reached peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph before weakening into a remnant low.
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the nation as the Weather Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network and contributes to Texas Connect coverage across the state. She can be reached at baddison@usatodayco.com. Follow her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropical disturbance in Gulf may drench Florida even without a name
Reporting by Brandi D. Addison, USA TODAY NETWORK / Palm Beach Post
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Brandi D. Addison, USA TODAY NETWORK | USA TODAY Network
