Invest 91L off the Florida coast in the Gulf of America became better defined overnight and formed into Tropical Depression Two July 19, according to National Hurricane Center forecasters.
The system, about 180 miles south-southeast of Panama City, has a high chance of becoming a named storm.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Florida from Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border.
“The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued,” according to the National Hurricane Center’s forecast discussion. “Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two.”
The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of two to four inches with locally higher totals around eight inches through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast.
In other words, be prepared for heavy rains and possible flooding.
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The second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be Bertha.
Here’s what forecasters are seeing as of 8 p.m. Sunday, July 19, 2026:
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Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
It’s unlikely this system will be come a hurricane because of Saharan dust and strong wind shear, but it could become a tropical storm, forecasters said the morning of July 19.
“Flash flooding from slow-moving or repeated downpours looks to be the biggest threat from the tropical rainstorm, even if it does not fully develop into a tropical depression or storm,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex Duffus said.
➤ Tropics on watch for Bertha. When past storms by that name appeared
Where is Tropical Depression Two?
The National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 5 p.m. July 19, was Tropical Depression Two:
The center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 85.0 West. The depression is stationary. A very slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west.
On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, the latest advisory states.
Location: 27.7 degrees N, 85 degrees W
Direction: The depression is stationary.
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained winds: 30 mph
Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Two
Active storms in the Atlantic
What impacts could Florida feel this weekend?
Rainfall looks to be the biggest threat regardless of development or official designation, DaSilva said.
“While rainfall will be welcome across portions of the Florida Panhandle due to an ongoing drought, the flooding risk can be increased due to dry soil. This dry, hard soil can allow the water to run off instead of being absorbed right away,” DaSilva.
What else is in the Atlantic basin?
There were two tropical waves out there:
Eastern Atlantic: A well-defined tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 34W, south of 19N. The wave is moving westward at 17 to 22 mph. No significant convection is observed near this wave due to dry Saharan air.
Also in the Atlantic: An Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 18N, moving westward at 17 to 22 mph.
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two
Tropical Storm Elida expected to weaken
In the Pacific off the coast of California, Tropical Storm Elida is heading toward cooler water and is expected to weaken July 19, the NHC said. It is no threat to land and could become post-tropical by Monday.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What’s changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
What are the X’s on the hurricane map?
There are some changes in the National Hurricane Center symbols in 2026.
In previous years, the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook map showed all systems with a lowchance (less than 30%) of development as a yellow X, including systems that had a near 0% chance in both the two-day and seven-day forecast periods.
Beginning in 2026, systems in which development is not expected (near 0% in both two- and seven-day forecast periods) will be depicted as a gray X.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
‘It only takes one.’ Always be prepared for hurricanes
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall tomake it an active season,” CSU said. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
“The northern and eastern Gulf, the Carolina coast and the western Caribbean remain areas where rapid tropical development can occur,” according to AccuWeather. “Even in a below-average year for tropical storms and hurricanes, it only takes one storm to cause significant loss of life and catastrophic damage.”
“We want people to pay attention to the forecast, because those warm waters can allow for rapid intensification, and the forecast can evolve rapidly,” DaSilva said.
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“We could see development very quickly close to home, so it’s something people need to watch closely.”
Florida weather radar for July 19, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued July 19 for Florida from Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Is there a tax holiday in Florida for hurricane supplies?
No. On Aug. 1, 2025, the sales tax on specific hurricane supplies was permanently removed.
Among the items now permanently exempt from sales taxes are:
Bottled water, first aid kits, and many food items purchased at the grocery store were tax-freeprior to the passage of the permanent exemptions added in 2025.
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
C. A. Bridges and Cheryl McCloud are journalists for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropical Depression Two forms over Gulf, heavy rains may impact Florida
Reporting by John Gallas, Cheryl McCloud and Ashley Ferrer, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
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By John Gallas, Cheryl McCloud and Ashley Ferrer, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
