The National Hurricane Center has had a quiet start to hurricane season, as wind shear and other factors tamp down the prospect of tropical system formation in the Atlantic for now.
In the Pacific, the first named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Amanda, was downgraded to a depression and is expected to weaken further, forecasters said June 7. But there are also two more systems looming in the Pacific offshore of Mexico and Central America that have a high likelihood of becoming tropical cyclones.
There is a system in the Gulf forecasters are watching for next week and into mid-June as no storms are expected to develop over the next two to seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters are watching five Atlantic basin tropical waves, three of them in the Caribbean.
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Now is the time to prepare for hurricanes and tropical storms. While predictions are for a “below-normal” season, that doesn’t mean Florida won’t feel any impacts. The state leads the U.S. when it comes to impacts from storms.
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When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific started May 15.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Could Florida face tropical threat in early June?
“While we always monitor the tropics for potential threats, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the central and eastern Gulf and the southwestern Atlantic,” Accuweather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “Several fronts can dip southward from North America and stall across portions of the region. Tropical systems can occasionally develop along stalled fronts and strengthen if they become detached from the frontal boundary,”
“Tropical development chances remain low at this time, but the Gulf, western Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic will need to be monitored during the first two weeks of June” as wind shear decreases. Wind shear helps prevent tropical storms from developing or strengthening.
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National Hurricane Center tracking Tropical Depression Amanda, 2 other disturbances in eastern Pacific
The National Hurricane Center is tracking three systems in the eastern Pacific, including Tropical Depression Amanda.
Tropical Depression Amanda was weakening Sunday, June 7.
➤ Track Tropical Depression Amanda
Also highlighted on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map are:
Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico: Forecasters on June 7 said a low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance is becoming better organized, and a tropical depression will likely form soon. The system is forecast to move northeastward and then northward, and will approach the coast of southern Mexico into Monday. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are possible across portions of southern Mexico through early this week.
Offshore of Central America: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of lowpressure offshore of Central America has changed little in organization June 7, the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook said. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves slowly northward toward the coast of Central America. Interests along the Pacific coasts ofnorthwestern Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador should monitor the progress of this system.
Tropical Storm Amanda spaghetti models
National Hurricane Center tracking no disturbances in Atlantic basin June 7
There were no disturbances listed by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. June 7.
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There are five tropical waves being watched by forecasters.
In the Caribbean:
In the Atlantic:
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” DaSilva said.
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“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
What are National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlooks?
Tropical outlooks provide a quick look at what’s happening in the tropics, including any disturbances out there showing potential for development and tropical waves that may be present in the Atlantic basin.
The National Hurricane Center started issuing daily tropical outlooks May 15. The outlooks are updated every six hours until the season ends Nov. 30.
Times are 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m.
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An outlook could be issued before or beyond those dates if something showing potential for development appears.
What are predictions for 2026 hurricane season?
Here are some of the predictions released for this year’s hurricane season.
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A major hurricane is a storm that is a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Could Florida be hit by a hurricane in 2026? See which counties have highest chance
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and how to pronounce them, are:
Florida weather radar for June 7, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of Atlantic hurricane season?
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
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What’s next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage regularly to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story has been updated to include the latest information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: National Hurricane Center downgrades Amanda, watches Gulf system
Reporting by John Gallas and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By John Gallas and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
