While the Pacific hurricane season is a step ahead and the National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Storm Amanda, the first named storm of the season, Floridians don’t have anything to worry about so far.
The first week of hurricane season in the tropical Atlantic came in like a lamb, but there is a system in the Gulf forecasters are watching for next week. And while Tropical Storm Amanda is over open water, activity in the Pacific closer to Mexico could filter into the Caribbean or Gulf and contribute to tropical conditions closer to home.
In the Atlantic basin, no storms are expected to develop over the next two to seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center. But forecasters are watching five tropical waves, two of them in the Caribbean.
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AccuWeather forecasters said they are keeping an eye on several areas, especially near the north-central Gulf Coast, where an area of low pressure could bring heavy downpours from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.
“One area we’ll be watching through the end of the week is near the north-central Gulf Coast,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “This weak low pressure area will be embedded in a plume of moisture flowing northward from the Gulf and into part of the southeastern United States.”
Now is the time to prepare for hurricanes and tropical storms. While predictions are for a “below-normal” season, that doesn’t mean Florida won’t feel any impacts. The state leads the U.S. when it comes to impacts from storms.
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“It only takes one” is a repeated refrain from officials who urge residents in hurricane-prone areas — which is all of Florida — to prepare now, no matter what predictions are and well before a storm is on the horizon.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific started May 15.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Could Florida face tropical threat in early June?
“While we always monitor the tropics for potential threats, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the central and eastern Gulf and the southwestern Atlantic,” DaSilva said. “Climatologically, this region can experience early-season tropical development.”
“Tropical development chances remain low at this time, but the Gulf, western Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic will need to be monitored during the first two weeks of June” as wind shear decreases. Wind shear helps prevent tropical storms from developing or strengthening.
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National Hurricane Center tracking Tropical Storm Amanda, 2 other disturbances in eastern Pacific
The National Hurricane Center is tracking three systems in the eastern Pacific, including Tropical Storm Amanda.
Tropical Storm Amanda is expected to strengthen over the coming days, before starting to weaken Friday night or Saturday, June 6.
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Also highlighted on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map are:
Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico: Forecasters said an elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the system has gradually increased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form Sunday or early next week. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of southern Mexico through early next week.
Offshore of Central America: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of Central America are associated with a trough of low pressure, NHC forecasters reported June 6. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly northward toward the coast of Central America. If the system remains offshore, a tropical depression could form by early next week
Tropical Storm Amanda spaghetti models
National Hurricane Center tracking no disturbances in Atlantic basin June 6
There were no disturbances listed by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. June 6.
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There are five tropical waves being watched by forecasters.
In the Caribbean:
In the Atlantic:
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” DaSilva said.
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“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
What are National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlooks?
Tropical outlooks provide a quick look at what’s happening in the tropics, including any disturbances out there showing potential for development and tropical waves that may be present in the Atlantic basin.
The National Hurricane Center started issuing daily tropical outlooks May 15. The outlooks are updated every six hours until the season ends Nov. 30.
Times are 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m.
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An outlook could be issued before or beyond those dates if something showing potential for development appears.
What are predictions for 2026 hurricane season?
Here are some of the predictions released for this year’s hurricane season.
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A major hurricane is a storm that is a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Could Florida be hit by a hurricane in 2026? See which counties have highest chance
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and how to pronounce them, are:
Florida weather radar for June 6, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of Atlantic hurricane season?
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
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What’s next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage regularly to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story has been updated to include the latest information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: National Hurricane Center watching moisture plume in Caribbean
Reporting by John Gallas and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By John Gallas and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
