Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin — which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane this week — on the afternoon of Monday, Aug. 11, depicted multiple paths for the storm, including one that passed through Indian River County.
The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on the fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season at 11 a.m. Aug. 11, warning Erin could become a hurricane by Aug. 13 and a major hurricane by Aug. 16 as it moves quickly west.
Spaghetti models are ever-changing, and it is too early to predict the direct impact, National Weather Service Melbourne Meteorologist Megan Tollefsen told TCPalm. On the spaghetti model chart on Aug. 11, one plot path for XTRP showed Erin entering Florida near Indian River Shores.
“At this time, for Indian River County and the Treasure Coast in general, it is still way too early to make any sort of specific determination about what impact we could see here,” Tollefsen said. “What we’re really trying to advise people at this stage in time is to just continue monitoring the forecast.”
Here’s what to know about the tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
Has there been a Hurricane Erin?
Hurricane Erin was a Category 1 storm when it hit near Vero Beach, went out to sea, and hit again near Indian River Shores on Aug. 2, 1995.
It exited the same day near Hudson, Florida, and was a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico (renamed Gulf of America by the Trump administration). It was a Category 1 when it hit again near Pensacola on Aug. 3. It was a tropical depression when it disappeared near Beech Hill, West Virginia, on Aug. 6.
What is the likely impact of Tropical Storm Erin?
Tropical Storm Erin could bring an increase in rough surf and rip currents to the east coast next weekend and into early next week, even if it curves north, staying away from Florida and the United States, according to AccuWeather.
“The tropics remain quiet and are likely to stay that way for another 10 days or more,” said Weather Tiger Chief Meteorologist Ryan Truchelut on Aug. 9. “While there is hope the active peak months of hurricane season may not translate into another awful year in human terms, the reality is that U.S. hurricane impacts are likely and to be expected over the next few months.”
When is hurricane season 2025?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
The season peaks around mid-August and late October because the waters in the equatorial Atlantic and gulf get warm enough to help support tropical wave development.
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
(This story was updated to add a new photo.)
Gianna Montesano is TCPalm’s trending reporter. You can contact her at gianna.montesano@tcpalm.com, 772-409-1429, or follow her on X @gonthescene.
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane Erin hit Vero Beach in 1995; NHC issues advisory for Tropical Storm Erin Aug. 11
Reporting by Gianna Montesano and Cheryl McCloud, Treasure Coast Newspapers / Treasure Coast Newspapers
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