Republicans have single-digit leads in both Florida’s 2026 governor’s race and U.S. Senate contest, advantages that reflect the state’s partisan tilt but remain far from decisive eight months out from Election Day, especially with sizeable amounts of undecideds.
That’s one of the upshots of the latest statewide opinion poll of likely midterm election voters by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida, made public on March 4.
U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds of Naples, the President Donald Trump-endorsed Republican in the race for governor, leads six percentage points in a hypothetical matchup with Democratic contender David Jolly of Pinellas County (42%–36%, 17% undecided), and seven points against Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings (43%–36%, 16% undecided).
This follows a Feb. 24 poll also by PORL showing Donalds as the out-front GOP primary candidate, with other contenders in the single digits, including political activist and entrepreneur James Fishback, former House Speaker Paul Renner and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.
Also, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody of Hillsborough County is ahead eight percentage points against Broward County Democrat Alex Vindman (45%-38%, 15% undecided) and she bests Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon by seven points (46%–38%, 14% undecided).
After decades trailing Democrats, state records show Florida Republicans now enjoy an almost 1.5 million lead in registered voters, roughly 5.5 million to 4 million, with minor- and no-party voters at close to 3.8 million.
“At least at this stage in these races, vote choice is much more about partisanship than candidate identity,” Sean Freeder, PORL director and professor of political science, said in a statement. “Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn’t yet appear as strong as in previous years – perhaps unsurprising given that the party of the President usually struggles more in midterm elections.”
Name recognition is also a factor, the poll shows, with 66% of respondents saying they never heard of Vindman, a a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel and combat veteran. He’s a former White House top national security expert on Ukraine whose congressional testimony helped spark Trump’s first impeachment in 2019.
And 74% didn’t know Nixon, a three-term member of the Florida House. She’s been a vocal progressive critic of Gov. Ron DeSantis and the GOP-controlled Florida Legislature, taking part in a sit-in protest on the House floor in 2022 against a congressional redistricting map pushed by DeSantis.
“On one hand, Vindman enjoys a name recognition advantage over Nixon as expected,” Freeder said. “On the other hand, given his significant involvement in Trump’s first impeachment, the familiarity advantage is much smaller than one would expect, and it doesn’t translate to better general election performance.”
UNF pollsters asked a slew of other questions, including what was “the most important problem facing Florida.”
Half said “affordability and cost of living,” with 12% saying “political division and polarization,” and “8% indicated immigration as the most important problem,” the poll summary said.
“Affordability is the top choice across partisan and demographic groups; however, concern over immigration and education is higher among Republicans (14%), while Democrats and Independents are more concerned with political division (12% and 17%, respectively).”
About this poll
According to the poll summary:
Jim Rosica is a member of the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jrosica@tallahassee.com. Follow him on X: @JimRosicaFL
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida 2026 races: GOP holds single-digit leads in new poll
Reporting by Jim Rosica, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Tallahassee Democrat
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
