With just one day until California’s June primary, new polling shows the race remains too close to call, with no clear indication of which two candidates will advance to the November runoff.
Three separate polls released between May 29 and June 1 show a tight race between three gubernatorial candidates: Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News contributor, and Democrats Xavier Becerra, the former health and human services secretary, and Tom Steyer, a billionaire climate activist.
Becerra leads a CSU Long Beach-USC-Cal Poly Pomona survey, conducted with a sample of 735 voters between May 23 and May 26 and obtained by POLITICO, holding 27% of voters. Hilton is 4 percentage points behind at 23%, while Steyer holds 15%.
Meanwhile, Republican candidate Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is polling at 11%. Democrats Katie Porter, a former congresswoman, and Matt Mahan, mayor of San Jose, lag, with 7% and 4% support, respectively. Eight percent of voters said they either undecided or that they would not participate in the primary election.
When undecided voters are pressed to choose, Becerra and Steyer each pick up an additional 2 to 3 percentage points, while support for other candidates remains largely unchanged.
Becerra also leads the pack in an Emerson College Polling Center survey released May 30 with 29% voter support. Steyer and Hilton are neck and neck; Steyer captures 22%, and Hilton is just 1 percentage point behind at 21%, according to the poll that surveyed 1,000 voters between May 27 and May 28. The remaining candidates’ polling numbers closely mirror those of the CSU Long Beach-USC-Cal Poly Pomona survey.
“Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release. “If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit. Steyer’s path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer.”
Since an Emerson College poll released in early May, Becerra has seen the strongest gains, rising 9 percentage points. Steyer is up 5 points, and Hilton has gained 4. Bianco has held relatively steady at 11–12%, while Porter has dropped 5 percentage points.
“Becerra has built support among key Democratic constituencies, at 44% among Democrats, 36% among Hispanics, and 36% among women, while Hilton has consolidated a majority of the Republican vote with 59%, though 29% support Bianco,” Kimball said. “Steyer is the favorite among voters under 30 at 36%, and remains competitive among white voters at 25%.”
A McLaughlin & Associates survey, completed between May 26 and 28 with 800 voters and sponsored by The California Post, paints a slightly different picture for the top candidates, with Hilton and Steyer tied for the top spot at 25%, followed by Becerra at 19%.
Recent rolls point to 3 candidates vying for 2 spots on November ballot
The three polls closely align with other gubernatorial polls released days earlier, all showing a tight race between Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer.
In California, there is a top-two primary system in which all candidates are listed on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters move on to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation, meaning there is the potential for two candidates from the same party to face off in the general election.
While the California Democratic Party initially worried about being locked out of November’s general election, much of that anxiety has waned. And now, it seems, the tables may have turned, with there being a chance of two Democrats securing spots on the general election ballot.
Since early last week, Hilton has been calling voters to not cast a ballot for his Republican counterpart.
“A message to every Chad Bianco supporter: I respect your support for Chad, but there is now no possibility of two Republicans in the top 2,” Hilton wrote in a May 31 post on X. “In fact, there’s a real risk of two Democrats. At this point that’s what a vote for Chad could bring about.”
Hours later, Bianco urged Hilton supporters to do the opposite.
“It’s clear that Steve Hilton supporters should unite and support me,” Bianco wrote in a post on X. “While they’re at it, Becerra, Steyer, Porter, Mahan, Thurmond, Villaraigosa supporters should vote for me too.”
Additional findings from CSU Long Beach-USC-Cal Poly Pomona survey
In the CSU Long Beach-USC-Cal Poly Pomona survey, a majority of voters (58%) said they were waiting to cast their ballot closer to Election Day. Among those voters, 30% said the underlying reason was that they wanted to learn more about the gubernatorial candidate. Twenty-six percent said they wanted to support a candidate who could win.
“These responses suggest Democratic voters are holding their ballots and thinking strategically about electability,” pollsters said.
A majority of voters believe both national and state economic conditions are getting worse.
Voters identified cost of living/affordability/prices (20%), housing/rent/home ownership (15%), and economy/jobs (6%) as the most important issues facing the Golden State.
Who are the top gubernatorial candidates?
The top gubernatorial candidates include:
What’s next for June primary?
County election officials had a deadline of Monday, May 4, to mail vote-by-mail ballots to registered voters. Ballot drop-off locations opened the following day.
Though the deadline to register to vote in the June primary has passed, Californians can still opt for same-day voter registration, also known as conditional voter registration.
Voting centers opened for Voter’s Choice Act counties for early in-person voting on Saturday, May 23.
Primary Election Day is Tuesday, June 2. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Who is leading the California governor race? What latest polls show
Reporting by Daniella Segura, USA TODAY NETWORK / Palm Springs Desert Sun
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
