The first-round NBA playoff series between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Houston Rockets will be a fairly intriguing one for the basketball world as a whole. While Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves will be sidelined, at least to start the series, there will still be LeBron James in one corner and Kevin Durant in the other corner, and that always makes for, at worst, something that approximates must-see television.
Just about everyone agrees that the Rockets are strong favorites to win this series, if for no other reason than the fact that the Lakers are crippled as if the basketball gods shot them in the legs. But nothing is certain in the world of the NBA, and upsets, not to mention strange things, can happen.
In this article, LeBron Wire is taking a look at what some of the experts across the nation are saying about this series and how they feel it will turn out. Let’s start with Dan Woike, who covers the Lakers for The Athletic.
“The Lakers have had to undergo the worst kind of reinvention in the final five games of the regular season, figuring out how to play together without their two most important players,” Woike wrote. “The good news, relatively speaking, is that option No. 3 is James. The bad news: At 41, how often can he empty the tank to keep them afloat long enough to maybe — maybe — get Dončić or Reaves back on the court.
“… Maybe the basketball gods will reward the Lakers for their March and provide them with some incredible medical news with Dončić and/or Reaves. Otherwise, it’s LeBron James, this generation’s greatest player, trying to pull off a miracle.”
Woike is picking Houston to win this series in six games.
“There are paths for the Lakers to win this series if they can figure out how to get into their offense, but the Rockets’ biggest strength — their perimeter size and athleticism — matches up favorably against a Lakers team without its starting backcourt,” Woike explained. “LeBron can get them across the finish line a couple times, but probably not four.”
Ben Rohrbach, Yahoo Sports
“James is still capable of carrying an incredible burden on his own — in limited minutes,” Rohrbach wrote. “He has spent about 18 possessions per game on the court without Dončić and Reaves this season, and the Lakers have had great success, outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per 100 meaningful possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
“At least Durant can share the load with [Alperen] Şengün. [Amen] Thompson, {reed] Sheppard and even [Jabari] Smith, all of them can do — and have done — a little more with the ball than their roles call for in the absence of [Fred] VanVleet and [Steven] Adams. Houston still has weapons.
“It is not the same with the Lakers. Dončić and Reaves do most of the creation now, and if they aren’t there, James will have to do it almost entirely on his own. Maybe Marcus Smart or Rui Hachimura can get themselves a shot, but the Lakers are built on role players — Deandre Ayton, Jaxson Hayes, Luke Kennard, Jake LaRavia — who can support Los Angeles’ three offensive dynamos with rim running or floor spacing.
“… Remember how he carried the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2018 NBA Finals? Durant does. That one wasn’t a fair fight. This one may be, if James can turn back the clock. It could be too much to ask of a 41-year-old frame. It’s incredible, really, that it’s come to this, if Dončić and Reaves cannot go: LeBron James, doing everything, once more.
“Prediction: Rockets in six”
Fran Leiva, Fadeaway World
“The Lakers enter this series with the clearest problem any playoff team can have,” Leiva wrote. “Their normal offense is built around two high-volume creators, and both are missing. … This is no longer about matching the Rockets’ firepower. It is about surviving possession to possession with far less self-created offense.
“That usually leads to one question: who takes those touches? The answer looks more like redistribution than replacement. Moving Luke Kennard and Rui Hachimura into the starting lineup hurts the Lakers’ depth, while Marcus Smart returned before the postseason, and Bronny James was told to stay ready because the series will require all available guards.
“That means more initiation from James, more secondary handling from Smart and Kennard, and a larger scoring burden on Hachimura. It is workable, but it is a thinner version of the team.
“… James can still get two feet in the lane, and Ayton remains one of the most efficient interior finishers in the league. If the Lakers can force the defense to collapse and then cash in on simple paint touches instead of living on hard pull-up jumpers, they can keep games under control.
“… The Lakers have a real chance to make this more competitive than the injury headlines suggest because James still gives them structure, and the Rockets have weak spots in turnover rate and late-clock execution. But over a seven-game series, the broader profile is hard to ignore. The Rockets finished the season with the better offense, the better defense, the better net rating, and the best offensive rebounding percentage in the league, while the Lakers enter the matchup without the two players who carried so much of their shot creation. The regular-season 2-1 edge for the Lakers is worth noting, but it came in a different health context, and that changes the equation. I think the Lakers steal one behind James and one behind shot variance at home, but the cleaner team is the Rockets.
“Winner: Rockets in 6”
ESPN
In a recent article, an ESPN panel of 12 experts picked the winners of each first-round playoff series, as well as the play-in tournament matchups, and none of them picked the Lakers to advance. Not a single one.
Dave McMenamin, whose ESPN coverage centers on the Lakers, picked Houston to prevail in six games. Three people polled — Jerry Bembry, Michael C. Wright and Ohm Youngmisuk — have Houston winning in seven games, which seems somewhat generous, given the totality of the situation.
The longer this series goes, the better the Lakers’ chances of winning the series become. But right now, just about everyone is expecting Durant’s crew to emerge victorious. If anything, it means just about all the pressure is on the Rockets.
The Lakers are essentially playing with house money. But James has led teams to playoff series wins when they were underdogs, and one has to give at least a tiny bit of mental thought to the possibility of that happening again here.
It probably won’t happen. But as they say, there’s a reason they play the actual games.
This article originally appeared on LeBron Wire: What the experts are saying about the Lakers vs Rockets series
Reporting by Robert Marvi, LeBron Wire / LeBron Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
