The 2025 college football season has been ripe with a lot of high-profile head coach firings and a lot of very lucrative buyouts. Many of these programs fired coaches with good overall records that still weren’t living up to the school’s very high standards
There’s no place with higher standards than USC, and head coach Lincoln Riley has been performing generally below expectations for the past 2 seasons.
But if things go sideways in 2025 and 2026, USC may still hesitate to fire him because he’s on a massive contract that also has a massive buyout. And while the football program may have financial resources to spare, paying tens of millions of dollars to a fired football coach wouldn’t necessarily be a good look for a university that is reportedly facing a nine-figure budget deficit overall.
So if the Trojans suffer another disappointing loss to Nebraska, should they try to make their investment more school-friendly and negotiate a reduced buyout, in case 2026 is another disappointing season?
We asked our Trojans Wire and UCLA Wire writers to chime in.
Matt Zemek, Editor
Reduced buyout, maybe not, but a reworking of the contract to add more incentives and change the overall structure of the deal? Yes. There has to be something which improves USC’s bottom line and also pushes Riley to do better. Most of all, USC and Jen Cohen should make it clear that if Lincoln Riley loses to Nebraska, the line is drawn: Make the 2026 playoff or it’s all over for you. Someone has to put the foot down and make it clear mediocrity is no longer acceptable. Hopefully, Riley won’t lose to Nebraska, but if he does, it’s a very bad turn for USC.
Adam Bradford, Trojans Wire
First of all, why would Riley agree to a reduced buyout? He has zero incentive to do so. Second of all, USC absolutely cannot let word of any such negotiations get out. If so, it could potentially put in jeopardy the biggest thing that the program has going for it right now—the program’s top-ranked 2026 recruiting class. That class should buy Riley at least one more year. But if the 2025 season ends ugly for the Trojans, I would look into the possibility of re-negotiating Riley’s contract this offseason—after signing day has passed and the coaching carousel has cooled off. I wonder if he would be willing to accept a more incentive-heavy deal that could give him a raise if the Trojans turn things around, but reduces the buyout if he continues to lose. Michigan was able to do that with Jim Harbaugh in 2020, and it wound up working out great for both sides.
Micah Huff, Trojans Wire
This would be a loss that would cause significant concern. I still think Riley has at least 2026 to figure things out. Maybe if the Cornhuskers blow the Trojans out, but even Notre Dame, a top team in the country, could not do that. I think Riley will be safe even after a loss on Saturday. He might be in trouble with the media, but he will be fine with USC.
Ethan Inman, Trojans Wire
No, this just seems like poor form. Why would Lincoln Riley agree to this? I think he’d be perfectly content to take every dollar from USC if they decided to get rid of him. All that this would do, in my opinion, is let Lincoln Riley know that the university is losing confidence in him and sour his relationships with the rest of the university. If they want to keep him around, stick by him like you have all the confidence in the world in Lincoln Riley. If you want to fire him, be unafraid to eat the money. Make a confident decision either way. Winning championships starts with making confident, championship winning decisions, not cautious, on your heels, overly strategic decisions.
Dylan McNeill, UCLA Wire
I would say it’s still too early for that. It’d be different if Riley initiated that conversation because he’s interested in one of the jobs that are open this year but I think the Trojans should give Riley another year before looking at buyout options.
Ryan Lorenz, UCLA Wire
USC might want to negotiate a reduced buyout, but there is no way Lincoln Riley would ever do that. Besides, USC won’t fire Riley if they lose to Nebraska because he’s had success and the leash seems long enough to have him at the very least start next season as the head coach. They have a top recruiting class coming in next season and if they fire him, they might as well kiss that goodbye.
This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: Southern California Football Roundtable: odds of USC seeking reduced Lincoln Riley buyout
Reporting by Ethan Inman, Micah Huff, Adam Bradford and Matt Zemek, Trojans Wire / Trojans Wire
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