• What: 3-seed Michigan State vs. 6-seed UCLA, Big Ten tournament quarterfinal
• When: Approximately 9 p.m. (ET) Friday
• Where: United Center, Chicago
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 84
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 25-6 overall, finishing 15-5 in the Big Ten regular season, and is ranked No. 8 in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches polls. The Spartans are No. 11 in the NET rankings and No. 9 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. UCLA is 22-10 overall, finishing 13-7 in the Big Ten regular season, and is unranked in both major polls, while being No. 34 in the NET rankings and ranked No. 29 by Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -5.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 762-308 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. UCLA — Mick Cronin is 521-243 in his 23rd season as a head coach and 156-72 in his seventh season with the Bruins. Prior to UCLA, he spent 13 seasons coaching Cincinnati and three at Murray State.
• Series: UCLA leads 8-5 all time, though MSU won the earlier meeting this season, 82-59, on Feb. 17 in East Lansing.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.7
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.8
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.5
SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 5.9
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 15.5
UCLA
C (34) Tyler Bilodeau (6-9) 18.0
PF (3) Eric Dailey (6-8) 11.3
G (0) Trent Perry (6-4) 12.4
G (3) Skyy Clark (6-3) 11.9
PG (2) Donovan Dent (6-2) 13.6
• MSU update: The Spartans begin the postseason as the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten tournament and likely in line for a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, which begins next week. A loss to UCLA could jeopardize that, depending on the performances over the next couple days by teams like Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois and, elsewhere, Iowa State and Houston — all teams not far from the Spartans in terms of expected NCAA tournament seed line. MSU might have lost at Michigan in its regular-season finale on Sunday, but that performance not only showed that the Spartans could go toe to toe with an elite team in a difficult environment, but also that they’re getting close to being an elite team themselves, according to the advanced metrics. MSU is up to No. 27 nationally in offensive efficiency, per Kenpom. The Spartans were in the 40s not long ago. MSU is No. 8 in defensive efficiency. Only one team in the Kenpom era (since 1997) has won a national championship without being ranked in the top 22 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
MORE: Couch: Izzo and Dusty May arrived at this point in the MSU-Michigan rivalry from different places. They’re already making each other better.
• UCLA update: The Bruins have won five of their six games since being pasted at Breslin Center on Feb. 17. That includes Thursday night’s 72-59 win over Rutgers in their first game at the Big Ten tournament. Right after UCLA’s loss at MSU, the Bruins changed their starting lineup, putting guard Skyy Clark into the lineup and sliding power forward Tyler Bilodeau to center and Eric Dailey to power forward, and moving Xavier Booker into a reserve role. UCLA immediately beat Illinois and later beat Nebraska. Point guard Donovan Dent has been a big part of the recent improvement. The former New Mexico star — who also faced MSU in last season’s NCAA tournament — has 65 assists and just four turnovers over the last six games. He had the Big Ten tournament’s first-ever triple double on Thursday against Rutgers.
• Matchup analysis: The last time these teams played was part of a miserable swing through the state of Michigan for the Bruins. MSU was the more focused and physical team. Physicality has not been a strong suit for UCLA. The Bruins know that going in. I’m guessing they’ll make a concerted effort to put up a better fight in that regard. They certainly have more talent and skill than they showed the last time out, when Bilodeau (22 points, six rebounds) was about the only thing they had going for them. UCLA can be a dangerous 3-point shooting team. They shoot about 38% collectively on the season, which leads the Big Ten. We’ll find out whether MSU is just a bad matchup for these guys or if Feb. 17 at Breslin Center was just a bad day during a bad trip for the Bruins.
• Prediction: I’ll be surprised if this isn’t a close game. UCLA is playing pretty well and seems to be in a much better headspace than a month ago. MSU should have the advantage on the glass and the Spartans are also a pretty confident team right now, playing their best basketball. MSU should have a noticeable edge in crowd support.
• Make it: MSU 76, UCLA 70
MORE: Couch: A look at what’s in store for MSU Athletics as Spartan Ventures gets set to launch
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State basketball vs. UCLA Big Ten tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
Reporting by Graham Couch, Lansing State Journal / Lansing State Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
