When my great uncle Otto came to this country, he considered traffic laws to be more suggestion than rule. The German-speaking potato farmer was particularly skeptical of rural stop signs, famously speeding up and saying, “ich denke, ich schaffe es,” (translation: I think I can make it) every time he approached a nearby highway intersection. This somewhat foretelling phrase would eventually be his undoing when one autumn morning he didn’t, in fact, make it, and the tale of Otto abruptly ended.
Gambles tend to work out until they don’t. That was true for Otto as much as it’s true for Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. Like my rebellious uncle, Prescott doesn’t mind rolling the dice if he thinks it’ll keep things rolling along. Also like Otto, some poor decisions have worked out for Prescott for a while but based on data and everything we know about regressions, Prescott’s luck may soon run out.
Prescott was one of the NFL’s most prolific passers in 2025. His 404 completions were tops in the league and his 4,552 passing yards ranked No. 3. With just 10 interceptions on the year, the Cowboys’ signal caller was well below league average in interception percentage and was a top-tier passer in almost every discernible category. Most of his success can be chalked up to pure talent and execution, but folks would be fooling ourselves if they didn’t think luck had a hand in things.
In 2025, Prescott threw 17 turnover-worthy throws (TWT) per Pro Football Focus play tracking.
As PFF’s Mark Chichester points out, based on average conversion rates, those should have resulted in eight interceptions, yet Prescott’s dangerous passes only produced six of them. His TWT combined with his overall high volume of passes led PFF to determine Prescott had a net luck rating of +3.
Rules of regression says both good luck and bad luck happen, but in the grand scheme, things eventually even out. That doesn’t mean everyone will eventually post the same interception totals, rather the more turnover-worthy passes thrown, the more interceptions occur. Just because one year was lucky doesn’t mean next year will be the same, or vice versa.
How Prescott and the Cowboys combat this is either by throwing fewer overall passes in 2026 or by specifically throwing fewer turnover-worthy throws. Opponents dropped 11 possible interceptions against Prescott last year, which is a rather significant amount. Dropped interceptions happen often in the NFL but the Cowboys can’t bank on that same degree of fortune again this coming season.
Eventually luck runs out. Just ask Otto.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Dropped picks, turnover-worthy throws? Cowboys’ Prescott presses luck
Reporting by Reid D Hanson, Cowboys Wire / Cowboys Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
