Democrats are hoping to flip some House seats in the fall, but if campaign financing is any indication, that looks like a tall order in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District.
Wisconsin Republican incumbent Bryan Steil has $5.5 million cash on hand after raising $933,218.51 during the first quarter of the year from his primary campaign account, Steil for Wisconsin. The Steil Victory Fund, which he uses as a vehicle for fundraising for himself and other committees, raised $450,226.86 during the quarter.
Steil has the most cash on hand of any House candidate in the state.
In comparison, Franklin Veterans’ Administration nurse Mitchell Berman, a Democrat, is the closest of Steil’s challengers in fundraising, with $140,000 cash on hand after raising $426,671 and spending $286,071.
Democratic candidate Randy Bryce, who challenged Steil in 2018 and lost by roughly 40,000 votes, has raised $45,618 and spent $36,854 and has $8,764 cash on hand.
Milwaukee Alderman Peter Burgelis announced his candidacy on April 26 despite not living in the district. Burgelis, who represents the city’s District 11, which borders Greenfield and West Allis, has $9,909 cash on hand from his aldermanic campaign, according to Milwaukee campaign financial records from January.
The only other Democratic candidate who has campaign funds worth noting is Miguel Aranda, who serves as the Whitewater Unified School Board vice president, with $12,831 cash on hand after raising $7,722.
The district has had Republican representation for more than 30 years. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan represented the district for 20 years before deciding not to run for re-election in 2018.
When Ryan backed out, he endorsed Steil, who hasn’t faced a close race since entering politics.
DCCC, NRCC clash on messaging: ‘Let’s go to battle’
Despite the GOP’s years of dominance in the district and Steil’s wide fundraising edge, Democrats have marked the race as one of its “Districts in Play.”
In a statement, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Katie Smith said:
“Wisconsin families needed Bryan Steil to bring down the skyrocketing cost of living, and instead he’s made everything worse. Under Steil’s failed leadership, Wisconsinites are paying more for everything from groceries and gas, to utility bills and health care. Steil rubber-stamped the disastrous health care cuts and tariffs making life more expensive and his record will come back to bite him this November.”
However, Republicans are confident they’ll retain the seat.
“I think the DCCC failed at getting a strong recruit in here,” said Zach Bannon, central press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Bannon said Steil has overperformed even in years when prominent Republicans such as U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and President Donald Trump were on the ballot.
“It’s one thing to add [the 1st district] to a list that you send out in a press release, it’s another thing to invest money. So put the money where your mouth is and let’s go to battle,” Bannon said. “And I like my chances with incumbent Bryan Steil, who won by double digits last election cycle versus anybody that they put up.”
The last time Democrats held the seat was when Peter Barca succeeded Lee Aspin in 1993. Barca held the seat until 1995, when he lost re-election to Republican Mark Neumann.
In 2024, Barca challenged Steil for his old seat but was defeated by roughly 41,000 votes.
The 1st District includes all of Racine and Kenosha counties, most of Walworth County, parts of southern Milwaukee County and eastern Rock County.
Liberals’ spring Supreme Court win could indicate a tougher race
While it might seem like Steil is going to cruise to re-election, Democrats can look to what happened in the spring for encouragement.
In the April state Supreme Court race, liberal judge Chris Taylor received 55,348 votes in Racine, Kenosha and Walworth counties. Conservative judge Maria Lazar received 47,246 votes across those three counties.
In Steil’s hometown of Janesville, Taylor won 32 of 39 wards and in Beloit, she won 25 of 32 wards. In Berman’s hometown of Franklin, Taylor won 19 of 22 wards and in Oak Creek, she carried all 18 wards.
Sinking poll numbers for Trump could have left a more motivated liberal voting base in the spring election. Steil faced a boisterous town hall meeting in Elkhorn last year from attendees angry about Trump policies since his inauguration.
The spring elections results are anecdotal, and those officially nonpartisan contests tend to have lower turnouts.
“Those off-year elections, they’re always special; they’re different,” Bannon said. “I really don’t put much weight into it at all.”
(This story was updated because an earlier version included an inaccuracy.)
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Wisconsin’s Bryan Steil racks up a wide money advantage over Democrats
Reporting by Ricardo Torres, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
