Rashan Gary had a down year in 2024, but how out of character was it in comparison to the previous standard Green Bay’s star pass rusher had set?
Here is what the stats say about what Gary has brought to the Packers defense in the last three years, as well as his dip in form a season ago:
Strengths
Since 2022, Gary has graded out excellently in almost every pass rush metric out there.
Among qualified edge defenders, he ranks in the:
To put it simply, he has been one of the most effective pass rushers in the NFL. Gary also does his part in the run game, though, and has been a high quality three-down edge defender.
In the last three years he ranks in the 74th percentile in tackles per snap versus the run, the 84th percentile in stop rate, which are tackles resulting in a failure for the offense, and the 76th percentile in average depth of tackle (AVDT), making plenty of plays around the line of scrimmage.
Weaknesses
Add to the strengths column the fact that there are no true weaknesses in Gary’s game as far as the statistics are concerned. His weakest area is drawing flags, where he ranks in the 36th percentile in penalties per snap since 2022.
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Even then, Gary showed better discipline in 2024, improving to the 75th percentile in penalties per snap after ranking in the 17th percentile over the previous two seasons. He committed just one penalty last year compared to five in 2023.
2024 was also Gary’s best against the run by far in the last three years. He improved from the 42nd percentile in tackles per run snap in 2023 to the 95th percentile last season.
Gary has improved his missed tackle rate against the run from the 27th percentile in 2022, to the 52nd in 2023, then all the way up to the 84th percentile in 2024. He missed just 8.7% of his tackle attempts a year ago compared to 16.7% in each of the two previous campaigns.
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It is no secret Gary did not live up to anyone’s expectations in terms of rushing the passer last year, and the numbers bear that out. In truth, he has not had the same impact in the passing game since the ACL injury which ended his incredible 2022 season early.
His HUR/OPP has fallen from the 95th percentile in 2022 to the 74th in 2023 and the 57th last year, while against true pass sets, he dropped from the 93rd percentile to the 77th and then the 58th in 2024.
Likewise, hits HIT/OPP went from the 96th percentile to the 80th and then the 43rd over the last three years. Versus true pass sets, he fell from the 98th percentile to the 65th and then the 31st.
His WIN %, in general and against true pass sets, has declined year on year, from in the 90th percentile plus, to the low 80s, and then around the 60th percentile in 2024.
Gary was first in the NFL among edge rushers in PRP in 2022, with or without the true pass sets qualifier, but in general play he dropped to the 83rd percentile in 2023 and then the 59th a year ago, while his rankings versus true pass sets fell to the 77th then the 65th percentile.
Overall, Gary has established himself as one of the best pass rushers in the league. He had an uncharacteristically down year in 2024, but even then was still a good pass rusher, just not a great one.
The positive news is that it was a big outlier and is more likely a blip as he adjusted to the new defense and new responsibilities, rather than a concerning downward trend.
However, whether he can get back to the truly elite level of performance he put on tape in 2022, before the injury, is worth questioning at this point.
He has been an above average run defender and last year was one of the best EDGEs in the NFL in that regard. Gary’s improvement in that phase should not be overlooked and is a real feather in his cap.
Gary will turn 28 in December, and in theory is firmly in the prime of his career. The Packers need him to hit the heights he has displayed in the past if their pass rush is to take a significant step in 2025.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Rashan Gary analysis: Stats behind 2024 dip, can he return to pre-injury form?
Reporting by Mark Oldacres, Packers Wire / Packers Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
