The Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) can run the win streak to five games, maintain first place in the NFC North and score a big win over a contender in the AFC if Matt LaFleur’s team can go into Denver and beat the Broncos (11-2) at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday.
The Broncos have won 10 straight games after a 1-2 start. Now in Year 3 with coach Sean Payton and Year 2 with quarterback Bo Nix, the Broncos are using an elite defense and clutch plays from Nix and the special teams to find winning pathways each and every week.
Can Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur find a way to go on the road and snap the NFL’s longest current winning streak against an uncommon AFC opponent in a tough, hostile environment in Denver’s altitude?
Here are the five keys to the Packers beating the Broncos in Week 15:
1. Offensive line must get off the ball
The Packers offensive line faces a massive test on multiple fronts in the passing game. The Broncos are deep and talented up front, led by Nik Bonitto (12.5 sacks), Zach Allen (NFL-best 34 quarterback hits) and Jonathan Cooper (7.5 sacks). But this group is also incredibly good at getting off the ball, ranking tied for second in average get off time (0.82 seconds) this season, per Next Gen Stats, and the Packers will be operating in a loud, hostile environment in Denver on Sunday. Can the pass protectors get off the ball consistently and make sure the Broncos aren’t getting quick, disruptive wins? Last week, the Packers carved up a Bears team that ranked 28th in pressure rate. The Broncos rank fourth. The game could be won or lost up front when the Packers have the football.
2. Tackle, tackle, tackle
The Broncos are not an explosive, attack-down-the-field type of passing game. Bo Nix rarely throws into tight windows (11.3 percent, 31st among QBs) and will gladly check the ball down short if nothing is there. And although losing JK Dobbins really hurt the Broncos run game, rookie RJ Harvey is becoming more of a go-to player for Sean Payton. This is all a long way of saying the obvious: the Packers need to tackle on Sunday. Prevent explosive runs, force check downs, rally to make tackles and then get off the field on third down when the Broncos are in obvious passing situations. Here’s the good news: the Packers are among the best tackling teams in football. In fact, PFF grades the Packers as the No. 1 tackling team by a decent margin. Jeff Hafley’s defense is fast across the board and all 11 strain to get to the football. If the Packers tackle well, and the pass-rush is disruptive on third down, the Broncos could really struggle to generate points.
3. Beat the blitz again
It will be interesting to see if Vance Joseph sticks to his guns and plays mostly man coverage with a variety of blitzes up front against Jordan Love and the Packers. Love has picked apart the blitz this season, and man coverage has become harder and harder to run against the Packers with the return of Christian Watson and Jayden Reed from injuries. And while Joseph isn’t blitz crazy like Brian Flores (46.3 percent), he is blitzing on almost a third of opponent dropbacks this season, and he’s not afraid to send an off-ball linebacker, slot cornerback or even a safety into the mix as pass-rushers. Love and Matt LaFleur need a great plan for protection, and Love will probably need to hit 1-2 explosive plays in adversity situations against extra pressure on Sunday. Given the coverage talent in the secondary, beating the blitz is probably the Packers’ best chance for big plays down the field.
4. Contain another scrambling quarterback
Bo Nix isn’t Caleb Williams in terms of athleticism and escapability as a scrambler, but he is throwing on the run on an NFL-high 26.5 percent of his dropbacks this season, per Next Gen Stats, so the Packers must be ready for more scramble situations. It took a few miracle plays for Williams to escape sacks and throw down the field last week. The guess here is Nix will have a harder time escaping a pressured pocket and out-running the rush outside the pocket, but the Packers can certainly expect Nix to play off-schedule at times, especially in big spots like third down and the red zone. Sean Payton will also give Nix some designed runs. Can the Packers keep the young quarterback from creating a big play or two with his legs?
5. Win third down
The Packers defense must find ways of getting off the field on third down — the group wore down in the second half last week, and facing a bunch of long drives in the altitude in Denver is no way to live. The Broncos are around league average for converting on third down this season, and Bo Nix hasn’t been a consistently effective passer on third down (83.3 passer rating). The real test will come offensively. Can the Packers stay out of third-and-long? Scoring points against the Broncos — who rarely give up explosive plays — will likely require methodical marches, but facing third-and-long is a great way to end a drive against this defense, which ranks first on third down. The Packers need to win early downs and be in neutral pass-run positions on third down. It’s a tall task, because the Broncos are good against the run on early downs. But winning third down will be crucial for the Packers to escape Denver with a win on Sunday.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: 5 keys to Packers beating Broncos in Week 15
Reporting by Zach Kruse, Packers Wire / Packers Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
