While the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started off relatively quiet, especially compared to early forecasts, experts say that’s not likely to last much longer as signs point to an uptick in activity across the basin.
“The tropical environment should become more conducive for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next few weeks,” said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach in a July 24 email to USA TODAY.
WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry similarly told USA TODAY that “we’re already seeing longer-range forecast models start to perk up… The deep Atlantic tropical waves coming from Africa have been peppier this week, and July 24’s long-range forecast models jumped from a generally quiet next 15 days to a much busier look for the first part of August.”
Has it been a slow start to the hurricane season?
It might seem like this year has gotten off to a slow start — especially compared to 2024, when Hurricane Beryl became one of the earliest Category 5 hurricanes on record by early July.
But in terms of named storms, the 2025 season is actually above average. So far, there have been three: Andrea, Barry, and Chantal. However, other key metrics remain below normal, including Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a key measurement of a season’s overall severity.
ACE accounts for both the intensity and duration of storms, making it a more accurate indicator of seasonal activity than simply counting the number of named storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
By that measurement, this is the slowest start to an Atlantic season since 2009, as the three storms that formed were all rather weak, though Chantal did cause some deadly flooding in North Carolina.
What did the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season look like?
The 2009 season got off to a late start, with no named storms until Aug. 11. But activity picked up afterward, ending with nine named storms — six tropical storms and three hurricanes, two of which reached Category 3 or higher. The season resulted in just nine fatalities, a relatively low number compared to more active years.
How does the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season compare to others?
Note: Only four data points appear for 2016 and 2017. That’s because each had a rare early storm — forming in January and April, respectively — outside the typical June–November season.
The first three named storms of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season didn’t arrive early or late — they were right on schedule.
Since 2009, eight seasons have recorded three named storms by July 4, the date Tropical Storm Chantal formed in 2025. That includes 2016 and 2017, which each had unusually early storms forming in January and April.
The 2025 season has packed a punch in how closely the first three named storms formed — all between June 24 and July 4. It closely mirrors last year’s pattern, when Alberto, Beryl and Chris developed in quick succession ahead of a quiet July that, despite Beryl’s landfall, saw no new storm formations.
What’s the forecast for the first couple weeks of August?
Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, told USA TODAY in an e-mail that “large-scale conditions should become a little more favorable as a Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse crosses the Pacific and moves into the Atlantic, enhancing large-scale rising motion and reducing shear.
“Conditions should especially become more favorable the 2nd-3rd week of August, which aligns pretty well with the long-term climatology of when the Atlantic starts to become more active,” he added.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Hurricane season to pick up in August: See timeline of how 2025 compares to past years
Reporting by Brandi D. Addison, Austin American-Statesman / Austin American-Statesman
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
