Texas women’s basketball advanced past TCU and Hailey Van Lith Monday 58-47, relying once again on a stingy defensive performance and shotmaking from guards Rori Harmon and Madison Booker.
A fourth rematch this season against South Carolina looms large in the NCAA Tournament Final Four. The Longhorns split the series against the Gamecocks in the regular season before falling to them again in the SEC championship game. Coach Dawn Staley’s squad is looking for its second NCAA Championship in a row and its third in four years. Texas, meanwhile, has not made it to the title game since 1986, though coach Vic Schaefer made it twice while coaching Mississippi State in 2017 and 2018.
Texas has a 3-4 overall record against South Carolina, winning once and losing thrice since the start of the 2010s. The two teams are No. 1 seeds in the tournament, with the Gamecocks emerging from their region after defeating No. 2-seed Duke 54-50.
More: How Kyla Oldacre and the Texas bench lifted Horns past TCU, into Final Four | Golden
Why Texas could beat South Carolina
Most of it boils down to whether Booker can get hot against South Carolina. Texas won 66-62 in its lone win this season against its rival — the only time they cracked 60 points against them in their three matchups. The Longhorns’ defense is their calling card, but they need an easy way to get a bucket when the chips are down and the game is tied with a few minutes left.
Booker is the most unstoppable quandary in the Texas offense. While they rely on posts Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre for scoring as well, Booker’s ability to rise over any defender and hit contested looks opens things up for the rest of the Longhorns. The superstar had 10 and seven points in UT’s losses to USC, while she collected 20 in her team’s lone win.
More: How Madison Booker nurtured her head-turning game despite a lowkey personality
If Harmon or Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda can contribute more than their usual dosage of points, the path to a Texas win gets considerably easier. But it won’t matter unless Booker can hit her shots.
Why South Carolina can beat Texas
The easy answer? The Gamecocks have already done it twice in dominant fashion. When Texas plays South Carolina Friday, it faces a similarly strong defensive team with more experience and a knack for winning in the clutch.
Staley is one of the greatest basketball coaches of all time, and her team consists of multiple veterans who were in the Final Four last season. There will be a lot of pressure on the Longhorns to perform, and while Schaefer has been in this kind of situation before, his team hasn’t.
South Carolina has the personnel to bother Booker, and if the rest of Texas fails to rise to the occasion and hit open shots, things could get ugly quickly. The Longhorns are not a great 3-point shooting team, and the Gamecocks could take advantage by grabbing an early lead and putting even more pressure on their opponent’s offense.
Will Texas beat South Carolina?
No.
Texas’ last two defeats came on South Carolina soil, but this upcoming game will even the playing field as the teams travel to Tampa, Florida. However, it’s difficult to pick the Longhorns, considering the Gamecocks’ championship pedigree and Staley’s ability to keep the team calm in pressure situations.
Even if Booker lights up the stadium, South Carolina has the talent to match the guard’s scoring. It’s easier to bet on the Gamecocks’ veterans stepping up and delivering than the Longhorns, who are new to the Final Four stage.
Texas vs South Carolina betting odds
Texas opened as a 2½ point favorite over South Carolina, according to BetMGM.
Spread: Texas by 2½ (as of Tuesday)Over/under: 139.5Moneyline: -145(Texas), +118(South Carolina)
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This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Final Four prediction: Texas vs South Carolina betting odds, preview
Reporting by Caleb Yum, Austin American-Statesman / Austin American-Statesman
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