Ohio has been drenched by rain in May 2026; will the summer provide any relief? There’s a strong chance thanks to El Niño, according to some forecasts.
Meteorologists expect El Niño conditions to begin in early summer this year, with some predicting that the meteorological phenomenon could bring unusually dry conditions and may be “very strong” by winter.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center issued a report May 14 forecasting a high chance that El Niño conditions will begin before July ends and last several months. By winter, chances increase that the El Niño will grow very strong, meaning the phenomenon’s effects could be even more prevalent.
NWS scientists predict an 82% chance that the event will begin as spring gives way to summer. Ohio could is likely to experience some effects from El Niño, which originates with sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, they say.
Already temperatures at the Pacific Ocean’s subsurface are “significantly above average,” favoring the formation of El Niño, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
What El Niño means for Ohio summer
When temperatures in the Pacific Ocean west of South America rise above normal, the United States may experience an El Niño event, said Aaron Updike, a meteorologist with NWS in Indianapolis.
These sea temperatures affect the patterns of two jet streams that cross the United States. The subtropical jet stream in the south may move farther south, while the polar jet stream to the north may move farther north due to the rising sea temperatures. These diverging jet streams usually lead to a drier summer, but not every time.
“There are still small fluctuations that can lead to nuances,” Updike said, “but on average we typically see drier summers.”
The severity of El Niño is tough to predict, Updike said, but there is some indication that this one will be stronger than normal. The strength of the event usually depends on how much warmer the Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are than normal.
A moderate El Niño typically forms when sea surface temperatures rise about 1 degree Celsius above normal. A strong or very strong El Niño will occur when temperatures rise about 2 degrees above normal, Updike said.
The Climate Prediction Center report says that sea temperatures are from 0.4 to 1 degree above normal now, with a chance of additional increases come fall and winter.
As strong and very strong El Niño events are not common, forecasting what this could mean for the U.S. is difficult.
“Because we don’t have a lot of events like this, it can lead to a little less predictability, because we have less to go off of from previous years,” Updike said.
The report is confident El Niño will soon begin, but cautions “substantial uncertainty” in how strong it will become remains.
“I wouldn’t get caught up too much into the idea of ‘super’ El Niño or those kinds of things,” Updike said. “Just know that right now we’re expecting a strong El Niño, and that can cause different weather patterns, including potentially some drier air over this area.”
IndyStar’s environmental reporting project is made possible through the generous support of the nonprofit Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: El Niño likely as summer hits Ohio. Here’s what it could mean
Reporting by Karl Schneider and Mariyam Muhammad, USA TODAY NETWORK / The Columbus Dispatch
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
