American consumers are expected to spend a record $24.9 billion on Easter this year — most of it on candy — according to one estimate released by the National Retail Federation on March 25.
But the heightened spending level isn’t necessarily because of a bigger sweet tooth. Rather, prices have gone up, and so has the amount being spent on Easter, which is April 5.
Inflation — especially the rising costs of chocolate — has softened this past year, reversing a years-long trend of consumers pulling back on their holiday spending or finding alternatives to increasingly expensive chocolates, experts are saying.
The National Retail Federation’s 2020 figure for per-person Easter candy spending was $23.30. For a family of four, that’s $93.20 and the number used in a comparison report by InvestorsObserver.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, $93 had less and less purchasing power, to the point that in 2026 it buys 40% less than in 2020, according to the March 20 report by InvestorsObserver.
While prices rose 67% in that time, shoppers’ budgets increased by just 15%.
“It didn’t happen all at once. Small price bumps year after year — a few percent here, a quarter there — added up without setting off alarms,” the report said.
For its report, InvestorsObserver looked at the prices of America’s most popular candies — Reese’s Peanut Butter Eggs, Cadbury Mini Eggs, Hershey’s Milk Chocolate, Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups, and Cadbury Creme Eggs.
A Hershey’s bar cost $8.29 as of the March report, compared to $3.99 in 2020, the report states. In a move described as “shrinkflation,” the Cadbury Mini Eggs shrank from 10 ounces to 9 ounces in 2022.
“Shrinkflation is when you go and buy your chocolates, it’s going to be less. Instead of having 12 eggs you only get 11,” said Pat Penfield, a supply chain professor at Syracuse University in New York.
Why did chocolate prices rise in the first place? Will they go down?
The price of cocoa beans used to produce chocolate surged in recent years because of changing weather patterns in West Africa, where the majority of the crop is grown.
At one point, a metric ton of cocoa beans cost $12,000 due to severe weather and crop disease, said David Branch, an analyst with the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.
Weather conditions in West Africa have recently improved, and cocoa now costs an estimated $3,300 per metric ton, said Branch of Wells Fargo, who said “the worst of the cocoa crisis has passed.”
But that drop was not in time for Easter.
“Even though cocoa futures have dropped, retail prices remain sticky because candy makers buy cocoa months in advance and work through existing inventory and hedges,” Branch said in an emailed statement.
“Most Easter chocolates were produced when cocoa was still extremely expensive, so shoppers should expect prices similar to or slightly above Valentine’s Day levels,” he said.
Better luck for Halloween.
People moving away from chocolate for Easter
Because of the higher prices, the chocolate industry was faced with what Penfield of Syracuse University characterized as “demand destruction.”
“If you’re a candy company, if you keep raising prices too much, people are going to go somewhere else,” he said. “Mom and dad say, ‘No chocolate.’”
The potential for “demand destruction” was evident in recent data that showed consumers were diversifying the kinds of snacks and candies they bought to go beyond chocolate, according to NielsenIQ, a consumer intelligence and data analytics firm that tracks retail sales.
Those snack choices include snack mixes, popcorn, cookies, cake and crackers, the NielsenIQ data shows.
Chocolate candies will account for $28.4 billion in sales in 2026, or 51.7% of total projected sales, according to the 2026 outlook by the National Confectioners Association.
Non-chocolate candy sales will account for another $22.5 billion, or 40.9% of 2026’s estimated sales. Gum will account for $4.1 billion in sales this year, or 7.4% of the total pie.
How to get the best deal when building your Easter basket
To make the cost of an Easter basket bearable, shoppers can “stack savings,” said Ted Rossman, an analyst at Bankrate who focuses on banking, credit cards and the economy.
“For example, combine a store promo with a rewards credit card, a manufacturer’s coupon, a third-party savings app (such as Ibotta) and/or a store loyalty program,” he said in an email.
“Go in with a good list and avoid impulse buys,” he said. “Check prices before you go (via apps, websites, print circulars, etc.) to map out which stores to shop at.”
Some stores have promotions such as a free Easter ham for those who spend $300 on other groceries, Rossman said, though they may require you to sign up for the store’s loyalty program.
Daniel Munoz covers business, consumer affairs, labor and the economy for NorthJersey.com and The Record.
Email: munozd@northjersey.com; Twitter:@danielmunoz100, Facebook and Instagram
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Looking for chocolate eggs and bunnies? Expect to pay more this Easter
Reporting by Daniel Munoz, NorthJersey.com / NorthJersey.com
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
