ORCHARD PARK – For nearly the entire first two decades of the 21st century, the New England Patriots dominated the AFC East in historical fashion, at one point winning 11 straight from 2009-19.
And if you were a Buffalo Bills fan watching your team bumble and stumble through a coinciding 17-year playoff drought, it was galling to endure the Patriots parading around in their championship hats and t-shirts, their smugness growing with every division title, conference championship and Super Bowl triumph.
The Bills put an end to the misery – assisted in a big way by the departure first of Tom Brady and then Bill Belichick – and have won five straight division crowns, but now, here come the Patriots again thanks to a rebuild that took far less time than we hoped.
Bills Nation, but also NFL Nation, reveled during the Patriots’ all-too-brief dalliance with irrelevance in the form of back-to-back 4-13 seasons. But Sunday afternoon, if they defeat Buffalo at Gillette Stadium, they will wrest the division away from the Bills and clinch their 18th AFC East title since the world survived the Y2K hoax.
Again, that word: Galling.
At best, the Bills can delay New England’s celebration with a victory, but that would still leave them one game behind. To overcome the Patriots they would still probably need to run the table against the Browns, Eagles and Jets.
While that’s entirely doable, they would also need the Patriots to lose at least one more game. Because the second divisional tiebreaker is division record, that loss would have to be either on the road at the Jets (unlikely) or at home in Week 18 to the Dolphins (possible).
“We’re going to take pride in winning the football game,” said Spencer Brown, who expects to return to action Sunday after missing the last two games. “They have something (to play for), so we’re going to try to take it away. I think that’s the name of the game. They’re going to try to take pride in it and be motivated to win. That’s the way it is … Let’s find out on Sunday.”
Khalil Shakir was asked about the pride the Bills have in winning five straight division titles, and how much they don’t want the Patriots celebrating Sunday at their expense.
“It’s not about them, it’s about how we do what we do,” he said. “I think it’s important that we try not to make it bigger than what it is, and what I mean by that is just silencing outside noise. I think that is kind of the topic of this week and what everything’s kind of going on with how we’ve been running the division and all that, but for us it’s more of just doing what we do, focusing in on us, honing in on our details, our preparation throughout the weekend, then everything else will fall into place.”
Over in New England, they are reveling in the disrespect the oddsmakers are showing by installing Buffalo as a narrow favorite despite the Patriots’ being 11-2 and two games ahead of the Bills.
“Good,” a defiant Stefon Diggs said when told of the 1.5-point spread. “A real (motivation) edge. That’s why I said it was good.”
Diggs went on to say the Patriots don’t need any more motivation, but a little extra boost never hurts, and QB Drake Maye concurred.
“Anytime you’re at home and you’re an underdog, it gives you something to play for a little bit,” Maye said. “Whatever they set the line at, it’s us versus them, regardless. When we put the ball down, it’s going to be 0-0. They’ve got some great players over there, they’ve got some great coaches, and they’ve won the division for five years. So, they’ve got something that we need to go take, and we know it’s going to be hard to do, but we’re up for it.”
Here’s my preview of the game:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Drake Maye
Just because the Bills might not win the AFC East this season, it doesn’t mean they will suddenly stop being a contender for future division crowns and Super Bowl berths. They are still in a wide-open window of opportunity with Allen at the helm, but it’s going to be a little more difficult to achieve the ultimate goal because the Patriots have found their Brady replacement and next franchise QB in Maye.
No quarterback in history ever had it easier than Brady during his reign of terror because no one in the division ever stepped up and challenged him and the dynastic Patriots. Allen and Maye have each other, and this has the chance to be one of the league’s best QB rivalries for years to come, the best in the AFC East since Jim Kelly vs Dan Marino three-plus decades ago.
“Obviously, Drake is playing at an extremely high level right now,” Allen said. “He’s extremely fun to watch and he’s obviously put their team in a really good position and helped get them to where they’re at.”
When asked about facing Allen, Maye said, “When you’re playing against these guys that are the best quarterbacks in the league, you want to compete with them. You want to beat them, and you want to kind of master their level, but at the same time, you still want to take things from them and realize and appreciate what they’re doing for the game, what they’ve done for their careers and the players they are. Josh is one of them. He’s fun to watch, and he’s one of the best, if not the best, in the game right now. So, he’s playing at a really high level, and it’s always fun to watch. He’s been good to me, and I appreciate the relationship he’s built with me.”
Sal’s prediction: Bills 24, Patriots 23
To beat the champs – at least the five-time AFC East champs – you have to beat them. That was true back in 2020 when the Bills finally ended the Patriots’ dynasty, and it’s the same Sunday as the Patriots will try to turn the tables.
New England won the first matchup, but now it has to do it again if it wants to clinch the division and the Bills are not going to relinquish their title lightly. Their yearslong late-season success (24-4 in December/January regular-season games since 2020) cannot be overlooked, and since 2020 no AFC East team has swept the Bills. They will be a tough out in a game they absolutely have to win.
The Patriots have just three wins against teams that are currently over .500 and the best of those teams was Buffalo; they also beat the 7-6 Panthers and Buccaneers. The cumulative winning percentage of the teams they have defeated this season is .349 which is the worst in the NFL. That probably doesn’t mean a whole lot come Sunday, but maybe it does.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
RB James Cook: It’s redundant to continue naming Cook in this spot, but why get cute here? There’s no denying he’s the only other player besides Allen who is a true threat to an opposing defense. He ranks second in rushing yards per game (100.6) and his success rate of 56.2% is 10th-best and that’s a key stat because it takes down and distance into account and explains how often Cook’s runs get the Bills into a favorable situation. By the way, Allen’s 59.8% success rate is second-best and the next highest QB is the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts at 19th. Success rate is really important and the Bills have two of the 10 best players in the league when rushing.
RT Spencer Brown: It looks like he’s going to play after missing two games with a shoulder injury, and it also looks like DE Harold Landry will play for the Patriots, though for both players we’ll have to wait until Sunday to find out. Landry lines up almost exclusively on Brown’s side and his 46 QB pressures are second on the Patriots only to K’Lavon Chaisson while his 7.5 sacks lead the team. Also, Brown is the best run-blocker on the Bills’ line, a huge upgrade over Ryan Van Demark.
DT Deone Walker: The rookie has flashed at numerous times this season, but lately he’s been pretty quiet. He has just one QB pressure in the last four games and he hasn’t had a tackle for lost yardage in the last seven games. The Patriots have not been a stellar running team (tied for 26th at 3.9 yards per attempt) and they attack between the tackles about 58% of the time. If Walker and the other DTs can do their part to shut down TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, that could neutralize the play-action aspect of the Patriots offense which they use at the eighth-highest rate in the league because Maye operates so well when he does it. The Bills’ defense has not been great against play-action.
CB Tre’Davious White: He had a tough game last week against the Bengals, which is understandable, but he also wasn’t great in the first game against the Patriots as he gave up four catches on four targets for 72 yards. Christian Benford suffered a toe injury and his status is now up in the air, but assuming he plays, Maye will try to avoid him and attack the opposite side with whoever White and his time-share partner, rookie Maxwell Hairston, are covering. Stefon Diggs will probably spend most of his time in the slot, so Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins and Pop Douglas will get the bulk of the reps against White and Hairston.
New England Patriots who should impact the game
WR Stefon Diggs: Coming off an ACL injury in 2024, it was pretty hard to envision the positive impact he has provided the Patriots this season, but Diggs has been a stud, leading the Patriots with 64 catches for 705 yards. And in the first game against Buffalo, he was revved up beyond belief and killed them all night with 10 catches for 146 yards. This time, the Bills will try to get Benford on him as often as possible, but the worry is that Pats OC Josh McDaniels will keep Diggs in the slot and that means he’ll be facing Taron Johnson who has fallen off a cliff this season and has become somewhat of a liability in coverage.
LT Vederian Lowe: He has stepped in for injured rookie and No. 4 overall draft pick Will Campbell who went down in Week 12, and this is a spot the Bills need to exploit. Whether it’s Greg Rousseau, Joey Bosa if he can play, or DC Bobby Babich sending blitzes at Lowe, the Bills have to find a way to get pressure on Maye who, while very good against the blitz, has seen pressures turn into sacks 22% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league, and it has totaled 40 sacks which is fourth among all QBs.
LB Robert Spillane: In his first season with the Patriots, Spillane not only has been their best run defender according to Pro Football Focus, but they have him as the eighth-highest graded LB in the NFL against the run. Even though he has played just 252 run snaps, 42nd among all LBs, he has 32 tackles on running plays including 18 stops which are defined as tackles that cause a failed play for the offense. In the Week 5 game, Spillane led the Pats with nine tackles and forced a Keon Coleman fumble. However, Spillane is susceptible against the pass, so getting a TE or RB on him would be an opportunity for Buffalo.
CB Marcus Jones: As the primary slot CB, Jones has been a mixed bag. He has three interceptions, including one against Allen in the first game, but PFF has also charged him with six TD passes against, the most of any slot CB in the NFL. He’s an undersized player and the Bills should try to get Dalton Kincaid or Dawson Knox into a matchup against him, but Shakir should also have a chance to succeed. However, Jones’s value for the Patriots shoots up because is one of the best punt returners in the NFL as he ranks second with an 18.8 average and has two TDs.
Buffalo Bills 2025 schedule
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Patriots prediction, keys to crucial division duel
Reporting by Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
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