ORCHARD PARK – Ever since the night of Oct. 13 when the Buffalo Bills lost in Atlanta, a defeat that now looks inexplicable given how lousy the Falcons have played since, Sean McDermott’s team has been drafting in the trail position in the AFC East.
By around 4 p.m. Sunday afternoon, that could change based on what happens down in Florida where the Bills will be playing at the woeful Miami Dolphins while the division-leading and heretofore hottest team in the NFL, the New England Patriots, face a daunting test in Tampa against the NFC South-leading Buccaneers.
A Bills victory over a team they have owned since McDermott took over as head coach in 2017, coupled with a Patriots loss would flip the division and put the Bills back on top by a half-game with half the season remaining.
That’s the simple math, but of course, nothing is simple in the NFL. Crazy things happen every week in the NFL and nothing is a given, a fact that McDermott knows all too well. For instance, look at what happened in Week 9 as the same Carolina Panthers who Buffalo eviscerated 40-9 last week, went up to Green Bay and beat the NFC’s top team.
“We’ve got to move forward,” McDermott said following the victory over the Chiefs. “It’s time to turn the page after tonight, wake up tomorrow morning, turn the page and move on to the Dolphins here.”
On paper, it looks like another Buffalo-Miami mismatch, but the one thing the Bills need to be mindful of is that sooner or later, there’s going to be a day when the Dolphins finally rise up and get it done against their dominant rival. Given the precarious state of the AFC East race, the Bills can’t afford to let that happen.
“Just continue to carry it over in this week’s practice, learn from this tape, and get ready for next week,” Josh Allen said.
Buffalo Bills key to victory
Make sure Allen’s Superman cape is washed, dried, pressed and ready to be packed for the trip to South Florida. Allen has dominated the Dolphins for his entire career, reminiscent of how Tom Brady once lorded over the Bills. In the regular season Allen is 13-2 (he’s also 1-0 in the postseason) and has completed 66.9% of his passes, has averaged 263.3 yards passing per game with 40 TDs and 8 interceptions, and has also rushed for 672 yards (7.23 per attempt) with five TDs. It’s literally the meek Dolphins trying to fend off a killer shark.
In Sunday’s 28-21 victory over the Chiefs, Allen played his best game since the season opener against the Ravens, and if he’s got things turned back around after some sputtering performances, that’s monumental trouble for a Miami team that is 2-7, just fired its general manager, and has a head coach that is probably on the way out the door at season’s end.
Miami Dolphins key to victory
Tua Tagovailoa has proven time and again that he’s not capable of outgunning Allen, and that’s when he had Tyreek Hill in his arsenal. Hill is out for the season, and while Jaylen Waddle is an outstanding receiver who has No. 1-type ability, the Dolphins’ passing game is far less dangerous than past years and they are averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt.
Miami’s most prominent offensive player is now speedy RB De’Von Achane and coach Mike McDaniel needs to deploy him heavily against the Bills. He can hurt them on the ground and through the air as he’s averaging 98 yards from scrimmage per game with seven touchdowns. Achane is averaging 5.0 yards per rush, he’s also Miami’s leading receiver with 43 catches which is a staple for the weak-armed Tagovailoa, and his touches have resulted in a team-high 38 first downs.
Buffalo’s run defense ranks 28th in the NFL at 141.4 yards per game and 31st in yards per carry (5.4) and the injuries are piling up which further weakens the unit. In the first game between the teams, Achane had 91 yards from scrimmage and the game was tied 21-21 early in the fourth quarter before the Bills eventually pulled away to a 31-21 victory.
Bills vs Dolphins matchup to watch
For as dynamic as Allen has been in the past against the Dolphins, this year’s Buffalo offense is operating through James Cook and the run game, and if Miami can’t contain Cook, it only makes Allen all the more dangerous.
Cook is tied for the league lead with a 5.7-yard average per cary and his 108.4 yards per game is No. 1, and now he’s going against a Miami run defense that has been nearly as porous as Buffalo’s, allowing 5.0 yards per carry and 145.6 yards per game with 40 runs of at least 10 yards, second-most in the NFL. And what’s really pathetic is that the Dolphins have used a stacked box (at least eight men near the line) on 35.5% of their run defense snaps, third-most in the NFL, and they still can’t stop the run.
In the Week 3 game at Buffalo, Cook ran for 108 of the Bills’ 157 yards and by keeping the Bills ahead of the sticks, they finished with 23 first downs, converted 6 of 11 on third down, and had TD drives of 85, 63, 61 and 65 yards.
Who wins? Bills 30, Dolphins 17
Buffalo’s defense has suffered three season-ending injuries in the last week or so to Ed Oliver, Michael Hoecht and Taylor Rapp; Shaq Thompson and Taron Johnson could be facing multiple-week absences; and that was after the losses of DaQuan Jones, TJ Sanders, Damar Hamlin and Dorian Strong who are all on injured reserve.
McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich are holding this unit together with duct tape, and they have had to rely on rookies like Maxwell Hairston, Deone Walker, and Jordan Hancock, plus aging veterans like Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Jordan Phillips to survive. That’s what made the performance and victory against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs so impressive.
The challenges are lesser against the Dolphins, and a revived Bills team that leaped right back into the conversation for the No. 1 seed in the AFC by beating Kansas City doesn’t figure to stub its toes against this opponent. Complacency and sloppiness are the only things the Bills need to avoid, and those are generally never an issue for a team that knows how to take care of business and go 1-0 each week.
What time does the Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins game start?
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. at Hard Rock Stadium
Who is favored to win Bills vs Dolphins?
The Bills have opened as a 8.5-point favorite for the game. The money line is Bills minus-450 (bet $450 to win $100) and Dolphins plus-350 (bet $100 to win $350). The over-under is 50.5.
How to watch Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins game on TV, streaming
∎ Cable/Network TV: CBS. The game will be available locally via the following stations: WROC channel 8 (Rochester area), WIVB channel 4 (Buffalo area), WTVH channel 5 (Syracuse area), WKTV channel 2 (Utica area), WENY channel 36 (Elmira area), WRGB channel 6 (Albany area), and WBNG channel 12 (Binghamton area).
∎ Online streaming services: You can watch games on NFL.com and the NFL mobile app, and you can subscribe to NFL+, the league’s own streaming service, though you can’t cast the games to your TV – you must watch on your phone or tablet.
∎ TV streaming: You can also stream games if you have subscriptions to Spectrum, DirecTV Choice, Fubo Sports, Sling, Vidgo, Hulu + Live TV, YouTubeTV + NFL Sunday Ticket, and Paramount+.
On the radio: How to listen to the Bills vs Dolphins game
You can listen on SiriusXM satellite radio on channel 384 (Bills feed) and channel 230 (Dolphins feed), and on traditional radio, the Bills Radio Network has stations all across the state. Chris Brown has the play-by-play, Eric Wood is the analyst, and Sal Capaccio is the sideline reporter. The network includes:
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills look to reclaim AFC East lead against struggling Dolphins
Reporting by Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
