ORCHARD PARK – Most NFL teams have a clear-cut No. 1 running back who drives the run game, and Buffalo is a shining example as James Cook is responsible for 85% of the yards gained by the Bills’ running backs.
Some teams – the Bills also being in this category when you add Josh Allen to the mix – have a great 1-2 running punch when the quarterback is involved, and Baltimore’s Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson sit right at the top of that list.
But it’s pretty uncommon in today’s NFL for a team to have two running backs who share the load and do it productively. Buffalo’s opponent Sunday afternoon, the Carolina Panthers, are one of the exceptions.
The Panthers rotate Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard in their backfield and they have combined for 799 yards during Carolina’s surprising 4-3 start. With that production, the Panthers rank third in the NFL at 140.1 rushing yards per game, but more important, they rank No. 1 in the NFL in terms of rushing success rate at 49%.
How success rate is defined by Pro Football Reference
Success rate is a metric that reveals how often a team stays on schedule regarding down and distance. Pro Football Reference deems a rushing play a success if it gains at least 40% of the yardage needed to achieve a first down, at least 60% of the needed yardage on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down to move the chains. For comparison, the Bills rank No. 2 in rushing success rate at 48.4%.
“I think the ability to have two guys is certainly powerful and dangerous,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “There’s very few in the league who have two (RBs of this caliber). I think overall they bring a lot to the table in terms of what they do at the line of scrimmage and the tackles they break. I mean, the numbers speak for themselves.”
Outside of Carolina, you can point to Detroit with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, Tampa Bay with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, Seattle with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, and Atlanta with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, as teams who can come at you with double barrels firing at running back.
It’s a legitimate luxury for an offensive play caller like Panthers’ head coach Dave Canales who calls the offensive plays.
“Just counting on both guys to execute when they’re in there, and it allows me to just call the next play,” Canales said. “I don’t have to really overthink who’s in the game as far as what we want to execute in the run game and the pass game.”
Rico Dowdle’s emergence adds to Panthers success
Hubbard had been the Panthers’ No. 1 back the previous two seasons when he totaled 2,067 yards rushing and 15 TDs which led them to sign him to a four-year contract extension with $16.4 million guaranteed. They also signed Dowdle to a one-year, $2.75 million deal to be Hubbard’s backup, but when Hubbard suffered an injury in Week 4 against the Patriots and missed the next two games, Dowdle took full advantage.
He rushed for 206 yards against the Dolphins and 183 against his former team, the Cowboys, and the Panthers won both games. Last week when they stretched their win streak to three, Hubbard started in the victory over the Jets but was out-rushed 79-31 by Dowdle, and now there is a question about who will be the starter against the Bills.
With his 468 yards and 6.7 yards per attempt in his last three games, Dowdle leads the NFL at 5.6 yards per carry and his 14 carries of at least 10 yards are tied for fourth-most. In terms of individual success rate, Cook ranks No. 1 at 64.5% while Dowdle ranks 15th at 54.3%.
While recognizing the backs’ performance, Canales echoed a long-held McDermott belief that run game success is about a total buy-in from the offense, and the Panthers are getting that.
“Let’s give credit where credit is due, it starts right up front with that group communicating together, staying connected on blocks,” Canales said of the Panthers’ young and improving offensive line. “I can’t say enough about the tight end group and the way they’ve been blocking physically. I see the wide receivers taking strides and steps on finishing plays with their hands on guys. It takes a full group. I love the fact that it’s a group effort and it’s a collective thing with the staff putting great run plans together and the players going out there and executing it.”
Bills’ run defense faces its toughest test yet
Carolina’s run game is an obvious concern because the Bills have already been chewed up this year by Henry and Robinson, and for the season they rank 31st at 156.3 rushing yards allowed per game, dead last at 5.8 yards allowed per attempt.
“It comes down to fundamentals, it comes down to our tackling, it comes down to doing our 1/11th,” defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said. “We’ve got to make sure that we have as close to 11 doing their job, and hopefully it’s 11 guys doing their job on every play, because the more guys that are not doing their job, the worse result we’re gonna get.”
The Bills have struggled terribly in the back seven as they have not received consistent play from their linebackers or defensive backs. Pro Football Focus has them charted for 29 missed tackles on running plays, tied for 11th-most in the league, but remember, they have played only six games.
Against Robinson and the Falcons, there were nine missed tackles, seven by linebackers and DBs, and the Bills’ defense gave up the most yards (335) in the first half of a game since 2001. You remember that season, right? Gregg Williams’ first Buffalo team that was woefully undermanned and finished 3-13, one of the worst records in franchise history. Of that 335, the Falcons piled up 168 on the ground, 81 coming on Robinson’s touchdown run on which the entire defense looked to be out of position.
“When you have a back like (Robinson), you gotta stay in your gap and own your responsibility, or he’s gonna hurt you, and he did that,” edge rusher Joey Bosa said after that game. “If one guy’s out of the gap, it’s easy for a guy like that to make a cut and get up the field. We need to tackle better and get the ball off him.”
Can the Bills contain Carolina’s balanced ground game?
Buffalo’s defense can’t afford to be sloppy against this Carolina run defense, and McDermott knows it.
“The run defense starts up front,” he said. “If we’re a one-gap, attack defense, you’ve got to be in your gap, and then are we fitting behind you the right way? Are we getting off blocks, using our hands to shed and are we hitting the right angles on the way to the tackle?”
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills’ 31st-ranked run defense to face NFL’s most efficient ground game
Reporting by Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
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