IOWA CITY — Iowa basketball’s performance against Minnesota was its most disappointing of the season.
Disappointing in the sense that it was the first time under head coach Ben McCollum that the Iowa men had lost as the favorite. The Hawkeyes delivered a poor performance against Michigan State, but that was quite the task for their first true road contest of the season. Iowa outperformed expectations on the road against an Iowa State team that seems like a national title contender.
But the game against Minnesota was the biggest letdown of the season to date (which also speaks to how good Iowa has been this season). The Hawkeyes, who trailed by as many as 14 in the second half, came roaring back to take a one-point lead with a little more than one minute remaining, but ultimately weren’t able to finish the job in a 70-67 loss.
For stretches, Minnesota played with more urgency than Iowa.
“There’s Clark Kent, and Clark Kent doesn’t have superpowers,” Iowa coach Ben McCollum said, “And then, there’s Superman. If you don’t use your superpowers, then all of a sudden you become Clark Kent and you’re not very good. Part of that (for us) is just being ready and being at an intense level consistently.”
Now coming off their third loss of the season, the Hawkeyes don’t have the luxury of a forgiving stretch to ease back into their winning ways.
No, over a span of seven days, Iowa is set to face a three-game gauntlet. The Hawkeyes play the No. 16 team in the nation, the No. 5 team in one of college basketball’s most formidable road environments, followed by another game in one of college basketball’s daunting road venues.
That begins with Illinois on Jan. 11.
The Fighting Illini’s lone three losses this season have come to Alabama, UConn and Nebraska, all teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25. Illinois holds notable wins over Texas Tech, Missouri, Tennessee and Ohio State.
“They’re huge and they’re skilled and they can shoot,” McCollum said of Illinois. “They can do a variety of different things offensively. And then defensively, they’ve really improved throughout the year. They don’t have a lot of holes. And they’ve got a lot of size. For us, we just need to do us, compete and fight and see what happens.”
Iowa’s unblemished 9-0 record at Carver-Hawkeye Arena this season will be tested by Illinois. Winning on the road in the Big Ten is not easy, something that was further illustrated by Iowa’s loss to Minnesota. Therefore, taking advantage of opportunities at home is paramount. A lively and engaged crowd helped will Iowa past UCLA on Jan. 3, and the Hawkeyes could use another boost like that.
After Illinois, Iowa plays back-to-back games away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The first is against Purdue. The second is against Indiana.
Winning on the road has been a sore spot for this Iowa team so far. The Hawkeyes have yet to earn their first true road win of the McCollum era. The first two losses — Michigan State and Iowa State — were understandable given the caliber of those teams. But the loss to Minnesota raised more concern.
It’s still too early to press the panic button, but it wouldn’t be good for Iowa’s road woes to become even more of a trend.
“Things aren’t going to go perfect, and you have to still be able to win,” McCollum said of playing on the road. “That’s the thing that we have to continue to learn. Things just aren’t going to be perfect consistently. It’s just more difficult to leverage things offensively on the road. That’s the thing that we struggle with right now.”
A realistic expectation for this three-game stretch is 1-2. Playing Purdue at Mackey Arena is going to be an uphill battle, so that would mean splitting the games against Illinois and Indiana. Going 2-1 is possible, but would likely take an exceptional effort. Going 3-0 would be borderline miraculous.
If the Hawkeyes go 0-3, it would put them on a four-game losing streak and drop them to 2-5 in Big Ten play. For perspective, McCollum’s Drake team lost just four games all of last season. That’s why it would’ve been nice for Iowa to take care of business against Minnesota and give itself a cushion going into this trio of contests.
The good news is that, on paper, the schedule lightens up after this demanding three-game stretch. After Indiana, KenPom favors Iowa in each of its next six games, giving the Hawkeyes an opportunity to find some firmer footing.
But Iowa has to face some serious challenges before getting there.
“We don’t have guys that are going to quit on it,” McCollum said of how Iowa has responded to the Minnesota loss. “Like, they’re going to keep fighting and stuff like that. Again, it’s not doomsday. It’s kind of part of the ebbs and flows of the season.”
Iowa vs. Illinois prediction
In order to beat Illinois, Iowa is going to have to play better than it did against Minnesota. There’s little doubt about that.
The Hawkeyes need to find a way to sustain stretches of good play, something that was problematic against UCLA and Minnesota. Iowa was extremely hot and cold during those two games.
Rebounding and defending without fouling are among the keys for Iowa in this game.
Illinois is very good. But Iowa has played well at home this season, and don’t underestimate how much of an advantage another energetic crowd can be. It’s important that Iowa is the tougher, more intense team, given that Illinois has more talent.
Iowa 73, Illinois 69
Follow Tyler Tachman on X @Tyler_T15, contact via email at ttachman@gannett.com
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa basketball vs Illinois prediction, Hawkeyes face tough stretch
Reporting by Tyler Tachman, Des Moines Register / Des Moines Register
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