Outside of a few tropical waves that the National Hurricane Center is tracking, the current level of activity in the Atlantic makes the 2025 hurricane season look more like a bear still in hibernation.
To be clear, the Atlantic hurricane season hasn’t been dead. With three named storms already under its belt, things are ahead of schedule. Historically, the third named storm of the season doesn’t happen until early August. And the first hurricane typically forms closer to mid-August.
But if things feel a bit off – especially looking back at early hurricane season forecasts – it could be because they kind of are.
“Currently, we’re above-normal for named storms but below normal for all other metrics,” said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach last week in an email to USA TODAY.
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a key metric that measures the total wind energy produced by a season of tropical storms and hurricanes. Now, at the end of July, this year’s hurricane season is the slowest start since 2009, by that measurement.
All of that will change as we start to enter the peak months of hurricane season – and it could happen sooner rather than later, according to recent weather data.
“We’re already seeing longer-range forecast models start to perk up… The deep Atlantic tropical waves coming from Africa have been peppier this week, and July 24’s long-range forecast models jumped from a generally quiet next 15 days to a much busier look for the first part of August,” WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry told USA TODAY.
Here’s the latest 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.
Latest Atlantic hurricane season forecast
Colorado State University, one of the most authoritative and established seasonal hurricane forecasters in the world, will provide an updated forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on Aug. 6.
Its latest update was published on July 9, and the university slightly downgraded its original forecast.
“We have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season,” the university wrote. “The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons,” it continued.
The changes have been slight, reducing the number of named storms from 17 to 16, the number of hurricanes from nine to eight and the number of major hurricanes from four to three.
Peak hurricane season hits around Sept. 10, but historically, tropical activity starts to dramatically ramp up as soon as the calendar hits August. About 78% of tropical storms form between August and October, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and The Weather Channel.
What will the Atlantic hurricane season look like in August?
The National Hurricane Center is already tracking three tropical waves in the Atlantic, and one of them has some capacity for development in early August, but wind shear and dry air won’t make it easy.
“Conditions are marginal for development during the first few days of August as the wave moves west,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva in its latest forecast. “Any interests in the Lesser Antilles will want to keep an eye on this wave as it moves east.”
Looking at the big picture, Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, told USA TODAY in an email that shifting weather patterns could create more favorable conditions for storm development in the Atlantic in mid-to-late August.
“Large-scale conditions should become a little more favorable as a Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse crosses the Pacific and moves into the Atlantic, enhancing large-scale rising motion and reducing shear,” Hazelton explained.
“Conditions should especially become more favorable the 2nd-3rd week of August, which aligns pretty well with the long-term climatology of when the Atlantic starts to become more active,” he continued.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, is an eastward-moving disturbance that moves in a back-and-forth motion across the tropics every 30 to 60 days. The MJO has been a nonplayer so far this hurricane season, according to Lowry, but its current track has it moving into a more favorable phase for Atlantic development in early August.
August is the second most popular month for tropical storms, hurricanes
September is a hotbed of hurricane activity, but August isn’t typically far behind it. On average, August sees two hurricanes: One around Aug. 11 and the second around Aug. 26. That’s just one less hurricane when compared to September.
At an average of four named storms throughout the month, August ties with September. Those storms are usually seen around Aug. 3, 15, 22 and 29.
National Hurricane Center is tracking four tropical waves in the Atlantic, Caribbean
The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking four tropical waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean.
Eastern Atlantic tropical wave
Central Atlantic tropical wave
Central Caribbean tropical wave
Central Caribbean tropical wave
Are there any hurricanes or tropical storms forming right now?
Nope! There are a few waves and lines of storm out in the Atlantic, but there isn’t any tropical activity that is expected to develop over the next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
When is hurricane season in Florida and when does it end?
While the Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons share a lot in common, Florida fits inside the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs annually from June 1 to Nov. 30.
What is the next named storm in the Atlantic?
Dexter will be the next named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Will August bring the Atlantic’s first hurricane of the season?
Reporting by Brandon Girod, Pensacola News Journal / Pensacola News Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
