Expectations often don’t meet reality. But don’t tell the U.S. men’s national team that.
The Americans have exceeded expectations, albeit early in the tournament, and have lived up to every ounce of hype placed on them after a blistering start to the 2026 World Cup. A 4-1 win over Paraguay drew the attention of even the most soccer-resistant fan, and the 2-0 victory over Australia in Seattle not only clinched a spot in the knockout rounds, and potentially, the top spot in Group D, but it has the entire nation on notice.
It’s the first time since 1930 that the Americans have won their first two group games, and the six goals scored through two games are tied for the best goal-scoring output in a World Cup in program history.
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Against the Socceroos, an own goal opened the scoring, thanks in part to a strong run from Folarin Balogun, before Alex Freeman headed home a deflected free kick to put the USMNT up 2-0, a lead the team wouldn’t relinquish in the second half.
Records are already being rewritten for this iteration of the USMNT, and now the questions quickly shift to what’s next?
The USMNT can clinch top spot in Group D before the final matchday
The most immediate thing to monitor is the result of Turkey and Paraguay, set to be played in San Francisco on Friday night.
Should Paraguay win or draw, the USMNT is guaranteed to win Group D, and would enter the game vs. Turkey with a freedom that nearly every American team of the past hasn’t had on the final matchday of group play in a World Cup.
If the USMNT end the day as group winners, the potential opponents range from the likes of France and Germany to Tunisia or Curacao.
It will play the third-place team from either Group C, E, F, H or I, and the second round of group-stage games has only just begun, so the potential list of opponents will continue to fluctuate, but for now, here is who the Americans could play if they top Group D.
What happens if Turkey beats Paraguay?
If Turkey beats Paraguay and bounces back from its 2-0 defeat to Australia to open World Cup play, it means the USMNT can finish either in the top spot or in second place.
It would set up a critical final group stage game against Turkey. With yellow cards given to Balogun, Antonee Robinson, and Chris Richards in the win over Australia, the trio would need to be cautious to avoid another yellow card, which would result in a suspension for the round of 32 game.
Add in the health of Christian Pulisic, who didn’t play against the Socceroos, and there is a lot on the line in the final match day of Group D.
The easiest way for the USMNT to guarantee the top spot is to replicate what it’s done in the first two matches.
Win.
Where, when is USA knockout round of 32 match?
While the opponent remains a question, the USMNT knows where it could play in the knockout rounds.
What are the World Cup Group D standings
Liam Rooney covers Florida State athletics for the Tallahassee Democrat. Contact him via email at LRooney@gannett.com or on Twitter @__liamrooney.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: US soccer World Cup path, who could they play in Round of 32?
Reporting by Liam Rooney, Tallahassee Democrat / Palm Beach Post
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Liam Rooney, Tallahassee Democrat | USA TODAY Network
