It could be a very wet week in St. Johns County this week, so make sure you have back-up plans for staying inside.
A disturbance is expected to stall late this week off the southeastern coast of the United States, potentially leading to a low-pressure area over the Sunshine State by the holiday weekend.
According to the National Hurricane Center there’s a 20% chance for a tropical or subtropical development.
“A rare summertime frontal boundary will settle over our area late this week and stall through the holiday weekend,” Ben Nelson, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Jacksonville, told the St. Augustine Record via email.
Nelson said that the “decaying frontal boundaries” over warm ocean and Gulf waters may incite slow moving tropical depressions and weak tropical storms, “with impacts of enhanced rainfall potentially lingering into next week.”
“Regardless of whether a numbered tropical depression or a named tropical storm “Chantal” develops, locally, there will be waves of heavy downpours through the upcoming weekend and into early next week,” Nelson said.
Although temperatures will remain in the 80s because of the increased cloud cover and rainfall, an “abundance of humidity” will keep “feel like” temps in the 90s beginning at noon.
Next week’s rainfall totals are expected to reach between two and three inches.
“Localized higher totals could result in flooding, particularly in the normal problem spots such as downtown St. Augustine if we have sustained and repeated downpours,” Nelson concluded. “Forecast confidence in tropical or subtropical development remains low, so everyone should stay tuned to the latest forecast information from the National Hurricane Center as the week progresses.”
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Could tropical system impact Florida over holiday weekend?
“This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days; however, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week and will continue to be monitored closely,” the Florida Department of Emergency Management said.
“Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
Hurricane News: Get the latest hurricane updates and how communities are preparing, responding, and recovering.
Tropical development common close to Florida in July
Named storms historically develop close to the U.S. in July, especially in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast between Florida and the Carolinas.
Later in the season, tropical storms and hurricanes develop out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves, including one in the Caribbean:
Florida weather radar for June 30, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
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This article originally appeared on St. Augustine Record: St. Augustine’s July 4 week will likely be a wet one. Will there be a tropical storm?
Reporting by Lucia Viti and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / St. Augustine Record
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
