The upper-level low off the Florida coast in the Gulf of America being watched by the National Hurricane Center continues easing north, but as of early July 18 forecasters saw no signs of circulation, according to the agency’s Tropical Weather Outlook.
The system, which is expected to scatter rain and possible storms across Florida this weekend — and potential heavy rain to portions of the state’s west coast and Panhandle — still has a low chance of becoming a named storm.
The Tampa Bay area is expected to see 6-8 inches of rain over the next seven days, with the heaviest rainfall arriving Sunday.
“Wind shear should remain low in the eastern Gulf through Monday, but is likely to ramp up again Tuesday, which should slam our blob’s window for tropical organization shut,” meteorologist Ryan Truchelut wrote in his latest analysis for the USA TODAY Network.
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Here’s what forecasters are seeing as of 7 a.m. Saturday, July 18, 2026:
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Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No. Saharan dust and strong wind shear have been making environmental conditions difficult for anything tropical to develop.
“So far, we believe the chance of a tropical depression or storm forming in this area is low, but probably represents the best chance for tropical development throughout the Atlantic basin prior to the end of July,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
➤ Tropics on watch for Bertha. When past storms by that name appeared
The second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be Bertha.
What impacts could Florida feel this weekend?
Rainfall looks to be the biggest threat regardless of development or official designation, DaSilva said.
“If anything develops in the Gulf, the storm would likely move into the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area, bringing the chance for flooding rain across portions of the southeastern United States,” DaSilva said.
“Mid-level moisture is limited and upper-level winds are marginal, so whether something organizes or not the primary impact will be enhanced rain chances in Florida and the coastal Southeast,” said Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
“Otherwise, the tropical Atlantic is sheared out, dusty, quiet, and set to stay that way through the end of July,” Truchelut said.
National Hurricane Center watching Gulf disturbance, 2 tropical waves
The National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 7 a.m. July 18, was watching the Gulf system and two tropical waves.
Northeastern Gulf of America: Low pressure across the eastern Gulf will remain nearly stationary through the weekend, forecasters said. The system will begin to drift northward through early next week, supporting periods of thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible, the weather outlook said. Interests along the Florida west coast and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days.
There were two tropical waves out there:
Eastern Atlantic: Forecasters were tracking an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 18N, moving west near 17 mph.
Central Atlantic: A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W-52W, south of 17N, moving westward at 22 mph. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10.5N between 48W and 55W.
Tropical Storm Elida expected to weaken
In the Pacific off the coast of California, Tropical Storm Elida is heading toward cooler water and is expected to weaken July 19, the NHC said. It is no threat to land and could become post-tropical by Monday.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What’s changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
What are the X’s on the hurricane map?
There are some changes in the National Hurricane Center symbols in 2026.
In previous years, the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook map showed all systems with a lowchance (less than 30%) of development as a yellow X, including systems that had a near 0% chance in both the two-day and seven-day forecast periods.
Beginning in 2026, systems in which development is not expected (near 0% in both two- and seven-day forecast periods) will be depicted as a gray X.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
‘It only takes one.’ Always be prepared for hurricanes
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall tomake it an active season,” CSU said. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
“The northern and eastern Gulf, the Carolina coast and the western Caribbean remain areas where rapid tropical development can occur,” according to AccuWeather. “Even in a below-average year for tropical storms and hurricanes, it only takes one storm to cause significant loss of life and catastrophic damage.”
“We want people to pay attention to the forecast, because those warm waters can allow for rapid intensification, and the forecast can evolve rapidly,” DaSilva said.
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“We could see development very quickly close to home, so it’s something people need to watch closely.”
Florida weather radar for July 18, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Is there a tax holiday in Florida for hurricane supplies?
No. On Aug. 1, 2025, the sales tax on specific hurricane supplies was permanently removed.
Among the items now permanently exempt from sales taxes are:
Bottled water, first aid kits, and many food items purchased at the grocery store were tax-freeprior to the passage of the permanent exemptions added in 2025.
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
C. A. Bridges and Cheryl McCloud are journalists for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane Center tracking Gulf system. Heavy rain possible for Florida
Reporting by John Gallas, C. A. Bridges and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
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By John Gallas, C. A. Bridges and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
