PANAMA CITY — Bay County has seen a slew of rainfall since May 22, but will it be enough to end the drought?
The News Herald spoke to a meteorologist from the National Weather Service in Tallahassee who broke down the totals from the recent rains.
Panama City was the luckiest between May 22 and the afternoon of May 26, receiving 6 to 8 inches of rainfall, according to the forecaster. Panama City Beach followed closely, with a volunteer measuring 7.31 inches of rain.
Northern parts of Bay County, as well as Mexico Beach, both received between 3 and 4 inches of rain.
Does this mean the drought is over? Not quite.
The U.S. Drought Monitor put Bay County between extreme and exceptional drought conditions in its May 21 update. The NWS forecaster told the News Herald that the drought level takes a good amount of rainfall and time to resolve.
Per NWS’ May 21 drought statement, Panama City only received 47% of its normal rainfall over the prior 120 days. A recent shift in weather patterns could offer much-needed relief from the drought.
The NWS forecaster told the News Herald that the Gulf Coast is entering its rainy season, which will last through the summer. A La Niña weather pattern that had encouraged the dry conditions has made way for an ENSO Neutral weather pattern, which brings more normal conditions to the area.
An El Niño pattern is now expected, with equal chances of it being moderate, strong, or very strong. This should cause wetter conditions in the region and also put a damper on hurricane season.
Despite this, the NWS meteorologist wanted to remind the public that it “only takes one” hurricane to cause devastation. He pointed out that both Hurricane Michael and Hurricane Idalia both took place during El Niño years.
Tropical disturbances may not be needed to offer relief from the drought. There are high daily rain chances through the remainder of NWS’s seven-day forecast, and U.S. Geological Survey data shows that recent rains have left Econfina Creek and Holmes Creek with much above normal streamflows.
Monitoring stations along the Chipola and Choctawhatchee Rivers measured above normal streamflows on May 26. The Apalachicola River wasn’t as lucky, with all monitoring stations measuring below normal streamflows.
The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal drought outlook splits Bay County into two, with the eastern half showing likely improvement and the western half showing the drought persisting. Precipitation is likely to be above normal over the next month.
The ground was so saturated as of May 26 that the NWS has issued a flood watch for the afternoon and evening. Forecasters said that 6 to 8 inches of localized rainfall were possible.
The wet conditions have led most counties in the region, excluding Gulf and Franklin Counties, to rescind their burn bans
This article originally appeared on The News Herald: Bay County’s recent rain helped with the drought, but it’s not over
Reporting by Dylan Gentile, Panama City News Herald / The News Herald
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
