The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing heads north to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the PGA Tour’s Signature Event at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, which begins on March 5.
It starts a meaningful fortnight on the Tour, with The Players Championship next on the tee March 12-15 at the Players Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. How meaningful? The combined purses are $45 million ($20 millon for the Palmer Invitational, $25 for The Players), and every Tour star will be playing the next two weeks, including the top 17 (led by Scottie Scheffler) and 23 of the top 25, sans only former LIV Golf member Patrick Reed (who will be eligible to return to the PGA Tour in the Fall) and current LIV member Tyrrell Hatton, who won at Bay Hill in 2020.
Arnold Palmer Invitational favorites, odds
As usual, Scheffler, a two-time champion at Bay Hill, is the clear favorite, at +333 on the money line, by BetMGM. Rory McIlroy, another past API champion, is next at +900.
The odds get much longer after that. Defending FedEx Cup champion Tommy Fleetwood is +1800, Xander Schauffele and Matt Fitzpatrick are +2200 and defending API champion Russell Henley and Hideki Matsuyama are +2800.
BetMGM doesn’t think much of current money and FedEx Cup points leader Jacob Bridgeman, assigning him a moneyline of +4500. Two-time 2026 winner Chris Gotterup and Jordan Spieth are also +4500 and last week’s Cognizant Classic winner Nico Echavarria is +8000.
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks
Scottie Scheffler
Hard not to lean his way, even with the recent struggles on his last two West Coast starts (and a tie for fourth and a tie for 12th now constitutes a “slump” for Scheffler). He has five starts at Bay Hill and his worst finish was his first, a tie for 15th in 2020. He went first-tie for fourth-first from 2022-24 and tied for fourth last year. Time for him to start flexing his muscles.
Rory McIlroy
He won the Palmer Invitational in 2018 and has six top-10 finishes and has made the cut in all 11 starts. Wouldn’t a Scheffler-McIlroy final pairing on Sunday be a doozy?
Billy Horschel
He’s still trying to find his form but he’ll break out sometime and what better place than within a quick drive from his hometown of Grant? Horschel has missed three of his last four cuts at Bay Hill but the one he didn’t miss was a tie for second in 2022, only one shot behind Scheffler.
Past Arnold Palmer Invitational winners
PGA Tour winners this season
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, predictions, odds: Who wins in 2026?
Reporting by Garry Smits, Jacksonville Florida Times-Union / Florida Times-Union
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
