Tuesday night, UCLA men’s basketball restored order with an expected blowout of Rutgers. It was necessary for UCLA to not only win, but win big to pump up the metrics. Yet, no margin of victory can change the fact that a Rutgers win won’t move the needle relative to the NCAA Tournament bubble. UCLA needs at least one more really big high-end win to feel good about being selected for the field of 68. This reality was affirmed on Tuesday, when USC beat Indiana at home.
After losing at home to Indiana on Saturday, UCLA needed — and needs — Indiana to be really good. The Bruins need that win to age well. You could argue that Indiana, as a bubble team, helps UCLA by losing, but there are lots of bubble teams across the country UCLA didn’t lose to. It’s better for Indiana to win so that UCLA’s loss doesn’t take on added baggage. Other bubble teams in the ACC and SEC can and need to lose.
So, with Indiana falling to fellow bubble team USC, the Trojans get a leg up on the Bruins in a common-opponent comparison. Indiana’s stock falls — maybe only slightly, but some. It’s not the kind of news UCLA wanted, and it reduces the margin of error facing this team.
UCLA should have little problem with Washington in its next game, but as we have been telling you this season, the schedule will get much, much tougher, beginning with that nasty two-game road trip to Michigan and Michigan State. UCLA can save its season with a split, but the Bruins will not be expected to achieve that. If UCLA goes 0-2 in the state of Michigan, it will need to come home in the latter part of February and early March and find a win against either Illinois or Nebraska. Those two teams are both likely to be top-four seeds for the NCAA Tournament. Beating either of them will not be easy.
The bubble math continues to be murky and complicated for UCLA. The Bruins obviously have to handle Washington first, but then they will go into the teeth of their schedule in urgent need of a special result.
This article originally appeared on UCLA Wire: USC does something UCLA could not: Beat Indiana at home
Reporting by Matt Zemek, UCLA Wire / UCLA Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
