The 2026 Pacific hurricane season is just around the corner — and the latest numbers suggest a volatile year ahead.
In the latest outlook from AccuWeather, forecasters are warning of an active season that could increase flood risks for parts of the Southwest U.S., including Southern California, even without direct landfalls.
The Eastern and Central Pacific hurricane seasons officially begin next week, and early forecasts point to a significantly above-average year across both basins, driven by unusually warm ocean waters and a developing El Niño pattern.
“The Pacific is unusually warm, and that raises the stakes this season,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “That extra energy stored in the ocean can help storms strengthen faster, last longer and in some cases move farther north toward places like Baja California and far Southern California.”
How many storms are forecast in the Pacific hurricane season?
AccuWeather expects 17 to 22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific this season, along with 9 to 13 hurricanes and 4 to 8 major hurricanes. The forecast also calls for 6 to 9 direct impacts to Mexico and Central America — more than double the historical average.
In the Central Pacific, which includes Hawaii, forecasters are calling for 4 to 7 named storms, 2 to 4 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, with 1 to 2 direct impacts possible for the islands.
California and the Southwest faces higher risk of hurricane impacts
While California is not typically in the path of tropical systems, forecasters say the combination of warm ocean waters and a favorable storm track increases the risk that tropical moisture could reach the region. That could drive heavy rainfall and flash flooding in parts of Southern California, especially in late-season setups.
AccuWeather also warns of an elevated flood risk across the broader Southwest U.S., including Arizona and New Mexico, where remnants of Pacific storms can interact with monsoon moisture and produce intense rainfall far inland.
“Storms coming out of the Pacific can push heavy rain deep into the Southwest,” DaSilva said. Even systems that make landfall in Mexico can send moisture hundreds of miles north, triggering flash flooding and swift-water rescues.
Mexico faces one of the highest risks this season, with forecasters pointing to warmer-than-average waters that can rapidly intensify storms before landfall. DaSilva pointed to recent examples, including Hurricane Otis in 2023, which strengthened rapidly before striking Acapulco.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com. Find her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Pacific hurricane season is next week — and California faces higher risk
Reporting by Brandi D. Addison, USA TODAY NETWORK / Palm Springs Desert Sun
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
