I am tired. Are you tired?
You probably are.
We are talking, of course, about mental fatigue, not physical fatigue.
We all wanted to get to bed as soon as that USC-Notre Dame game ended. It’s the great victories — like 2005 in South Bend — that keep us up at night, never wanting the adrenaline rush to fade. Lincoln Riley, on the other hand, puts USC football to sleep. This is a slumbering, dozing program, because players are just not very wakeful under his watch.
It’s tiring to observe, year after year and season after season.
The starting point for our conversation after the Notre Dame game is that USC played an enormously flawed game against an opponent that made a large number of mistakes. This was not one of the best Notre Dame teams USC has faced. This was a middleweight bout rather than a clash of heavyweights. Yet, USC still couldn’t take advantage.
Riley keeps letting big road games slip through his fingers. The win over Michigan doesn’t look nearly as good or feel nearly as important now. It’s Year 4, and this program doesn’t seem especially close to doing something great. Yeah, the 2026 recruiting class is strong, but that’s a freshman class. Are we really expecting Riley to coach up a bunch of freshmen so well that it’s all going to come together in one season?
I can’t trust Riley at this point. I know many of you can’t, either. It’s time to get very serious about the Lincoln Riley endgame at USC football.
No more second chances for Lincoln Riley
That’s it. Riley has run out of rope, out of leeway, out of any more grace periods at USC football. The loss to Notre Dame doesn’t eliminate USC from the College Football Playoff, but who would predict the Trojans to get in at this point? It is not going to win at Oregon unless a remarkable transformation occurs. That would mean four years with zero playoff appearances, far from what we were all expecting on that November Sunday in 2021 when Riley was hired by Mike Bohn and Brandon Sosna.
Riley, who is almost certain to be brought back in 2026 to coach up that ballyhooed recruiting class, gets one more chance — that’s it — to prove himself. If he can’t make the playoff next year, it should be over. Done. Finished. No more second chances. Riley enters 2026 on the hot seat. Thrive or leave.
Florida and Florida State jobs should both be available, Lincoln
Florida is going to fire Billy Napier. Florida State will fire Mike Norvell. I don’t expect Riley to want to leave for either of those jobs. Let’s be clear about that. However, Riley should certainly be encouraged to do so. Maybe the NFL is the only world Riley would leave USC for, but if he wants out of LA, he has some enticing options.
Never felt comfortable in Los Angeles
Lincoln Riley has never looked comfortable as USC’s coach. This is a different media market from New York or Chicago, where local media are tougher, but it’s still a massive market.
New York fans will show up for teams even if they aren’t great, but in LA, if teams don’t win, fans don’t come. That’s not a negative commentary on fans, either. I actually love that about LA fans. There are better things to do in life than spend hard-earned money on a mediocre product.
The way for Riley to connect with the fan base was to win. He hasn’t done that. If he refuses to bolt for another attractive coaching job, 2026 should be his last go-round in Southern California. It’s a job which has never fit him; he gets one last chance to make some alterations at the local tailor.
Brian Kelly is going through the same things at LSU
Brian Kelly leaving Notre Dame and the Midwest to coach in the South at LSU was never a good, comfortable cultural fit. The only way Kelly was going to make himself loved by LSU fans was to win. It’s very similar to Riley leaving Oklahoma and the South Central Plains — his home region — for Los Angeles, a completely different place. LSU fans definitely want Kelly gone. It’s hard to find a lot of USC fans who like having Riley as their football coach.
Time is no excuse
“I need more time” is the coach’s constant complaint. Riley has had four years to get this program on the right track, and he has failed. Look at Curt Cignetti at Indiana. He instantly changed a nowhere program into a playoff program. He didn’t need a two-year ramp-up or grace period. He started winning big right away.
Irony
Riley, like Cignetti, actually won a lot in Year 1. It was the failure to significantly upgrade his staff — cough, Alex Grinch, cough — in Year 2 that will be remembered as his biggest and most consequential mistake if he doesn’t turn things around in 2026.
USC vs. Notre Dame
Oh, yeah, right, there was a game on Saturday. I guess we have to talk about that. …
The reverse to Makai Lemon was rightly skewered by fans and journalists alike. Taking the ball out of Jayden Maiava’s hands was dumb. That said, we might not be having this conversation if Lemon threw the ball away and didn’t turn the ball over.
That’s what really gets me about the play: Of course it was a bad play call, but it wouldn’t have carried nearly as much weight if Lemon did what he was coached to do.
That’s when we get to the infuriating point about Lincoln Riley at USC: Players do not show they have been coached on the details. The message does not sink in. Lessons are not learned. It’s Year 4, and Riley’s team lacks discipline. Asking a receiver to handle the ball in the backfield makes sense only if he has been coached properly, so he will respond correctly if the play gets contained by the defense. Lemon did not respond correctly. Riley plainly did not coach him up. That’s far worse than the play call.
Special teams
Riley special teams have hurt USC more than they have helped in his tenure. Ryon Sayeri has done a great job as placekicker, yet the Trojans are still a net negative on special teams because of the inexcusable kickoff return they allowed. It’s another example of a Riley team not getting the details right. It’s Year 4.
USC infrastructure
Facilities: improved. General manager: improved. Recruiting: improved. Riley cannot complain one bit about USC’s investments. The 2026 season should absolutely be a hot-seat season: playoff or pink slip. Thrive or leave.
That’s it, and that’s all, Lincoln Riley. No more second chances at USC. 2026 is your last one to get it right.
This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: If Lincoln Riley doesn’t make the 2026 College Football Playoff, he’s done at USC
Reporting by Matt Zemek / Trojans Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
