When an offense opens a series with an incomplete pass, the ensuing second-down play call often dictates the success of the entire drive. According to NFL analyst Ryan Paganetti, coaches across the league frequently fall victim to a common tactical overcorrection where they choose to run the ball on 2nd-and-10 to avoid a potential third-and-long after a failed pass on 1st-and-10.
While several of the league’s top offenses aggressively look to throw their way out of these early-down holes, San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has routinely taken a conservative approach in these scenarios. Charting from Paganetti using Fantasy Points Data and nflfastR from 2022 through 2025 for projected 2026 play callers shows Shanahan ranks 19th in the NFL with a meager 50.7% pass rate in these situations.
Across 76 games, Shanahan faced this scenario 142 times, calling 72 passes and a whopping 70 runs—essentially turning the sequence into a coin flip.
The analytics heavily push back against Shanahan’s balanced approach. Paganetti notes that league-wide since 2022, choosing to throw the ball in this specific spot completely is better than running the ball with a +16.6 percentage point advantage in success rate, generating an additional +0.23 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, and resulting in a +6.5 percentage point increase in eventual series success rate. By running so frequently, the 49ers are routinely putting themselves behind the chains.
What makes Shanahan’s low ranking so jarring is how much his prominent offensive disciples have embraced the aerial data. Los Angeles Chargers head coach Mike McDaniel ranks sixth in the league, trusting his offense to throw at a 66.4% clip on 2nd-and-10.
However, not all of his branches have evolved. Arizona Cardinals head coach Mike LaFleur, who was Shanahan’s former passing game coordinator who worked alongside McDaniel in San Francisco, and is now the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals after some time with Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams, actually ranks even lower than his former boss, sitting at No. 20 with a 48.9% pass rate.
Shanahan is widely considered a premier offensive mastermind, but this numbers crunch highlights a clear area where he tends to overcorrect. As the 49ers prepare for the 2026 season, leaning into more passing on 2nd-and-10 could unlock an even higher level of efficiency for Brock Purdy and the offense.
This article originally appeared on Niners Wire: Data reveals surprising flaw in Kyle Shanahan’s 2nd-and-10 strategy
Reporting by Oliver G., Niners Wire / Niners Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Oliver G., Niners Wire | USA TODAY Network
