When he quietly bowed out of the race to be the Michigan Republican Party’s nominee for governor, Mike Cox issued a statement, pledging: “I will do whatever I can to help John James…win in November.”
Short of writing a big check — and I suspect Cox dropped out on Friday, July 17, in part, because he feared any big checks he might write might not clear the bank — I’m not sure how much Cox can help James win the governorship.
Of course, James first has to win the GOP’s nomination in the Aug. 4 primary.
And you could argue that Cox actually hurt James’ odds of becoming governor by abandoning his own campaign. After former Michigan Speaker of the House Tom Leonard, state Senate Republican Leader Aric Nesbitt and, now, Cox dropped out of the gubernatorial primary, Republican voters who don’t like the congressman from Macomb County now have only one option: Perry Johnson.
That point wasn’t lost on Johnson, an Oakland County businessman, who urged Cox’s supporters to “unite behind our campaign.”
Rather than prognosticate on how the pachyderm primary will play out, I’m going to use this opportunity to imagine an alternative universe in which formidable candidates like Cox and former Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow would still be more than a name on the primary ballot.
Because ballots were printed before Cox, McMorrow and Nesbitt withdrew from their respective primaries, you will still get a chance to vote for them, even though they have ended their campaigns.
So I guess they still could win. But as unlikely as it may sound, I think they would have had a better chance at success if they had followed the paths I’m about to propose.
Roadkill
Before I cast myself as a political prognosticator par excellence, I should remind you that, between tours of duty here at the Free Press, I was an unsuccessful candidate for the Detroit City Council in 2021.
I don’t look at my second place finish in the general election as a defeat so much as my fellow east siders coming together in a mighty way to let me know how much they value my work as a watchdog reporter — and sending a powerful message that I should return to journalism.
By the time I decided to run for office, I had been covering politics for more than 30 years. My campaign reinforced something I believed even when my views on how to run for office were purely theoretical: Campaigns are about choices, and candidates who make the wrong choices usually lose the battle before the first shot is fired.
Timing is also crucial; you have to be the right candidate with the right message at the right time.
(Or, as the Democrats may show us, you have to be the left candidate with the right message at the right time.)
McMorrow, a state senator from Royal Oak, enjoyed a surprisingly high national profile for a local legislator. Early in what still is a fledgling career, she exhibited a talent for seizing the spotlight and raising money. Her youth and progressive credentials were prime assets at a time Democrats were turning away from their ossified leadership and challenging its handling of Middle East conflicts.
But I think we got a peek at the problem with McMorrow’s campaign during the Democratic U.S. Senate candidates’ debate on Mackinac Island on May 28 during the Detroit Regional Chamber’s annual policy conference.
U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens touted her experience in Washington and support from establishment Democrats.
Abdul El-Sayed staked out his position on the far left of the party, emphasizing his refusal to take contributions from corporate political action committees (PACs) and calling for an end to U.S. military aid to Israel.
McMorrow took a more middle-of-the-road approach, leaving the attacks on Stevens to El-Sayed and saving her jabs for President Donald Trump and presumptive Republican U.S. Senate nominee Mike Rogers.
While McMorrow, like El-Sayed, has not taken contributions from political entities aligned with American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), she did not match his passion or vitriol toward Israel. Because McMorrow has taken contributions from corporate PACs in past campaigns, she could not compete with El-Sayed for purity on an issue which resonates powerfully with progressives.
I suspect respect for Stevens — or at least respect for former U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow and former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, both of whom endorsed Stevens shortly before the policy conference — made it hard for McMorrow to hammer the congresswoman.
That left McMorrow with little ground to call her own in a primary where it seems like Democrats are pulling hard to the left, or rushing to shore up candidates with a more establishment profile.
With no hope of competing with Stevens’ ability to raise and attract campaign funds, I think McMorrow’s only chance to win the Democratic primary was to go hard to the left and try to outflank El-Sayed for the party’s progressive voters. That would also require attacking El-Sayed with the same vigor with which he has attacked Stevens, which appears to be an approach McMorrow was not comfortable with.
All of which is easier said than done, but it’s still better than trying to win as a progressive candidate with establishment tendencies in a party with voters who only favor hybrids when they are shopping for a new vehicle.
All or nothing
Republican candidates who wager their campaign’s survival on winning Trump’s endorsement are the political equivalent of prisoners who strap themselves in Ol’ Sparky hoping for a call from the governor.
Leonard, a lawyer, former prosecutor and state lawmaker from DeWitt, entered the GOP gubernatorial primary hoping a Trump ally might help boost his campaign.
But Leonard never looked comfortable in a red MAGA hat, and was the first serious candidate to drop out of the race.
Nesbitt, a state senator from Porter Township, is largely unknown outside Lansing. So, his only chance was to catch Trump’s eye and ride those coattails all the way to the nomination.
Johnson has more dollars than political sense. But since he’s funding his own campaign, he never had to worry about whether missing out on Trump’s blessing would bankrupt his candidacy.
Johnson would have loved to win Trump’s endorsement, but he could still win if there are enough Johnson supporters and “Anybody But James” voters who have nowhere else to turn now that Cox is out of the race.
James, as a sitting congressman who has won Trump’s support before, was arguably the most likely to get his backing again.
But Cox is the candidate who could have made the strongest case without relying on Trump.
As a former Michigan Attorney General — and, as he pointed out during two debates earlier this month, the only candidate to win two statewide races — Cox has a track record to run on.
He fought utilities, health insurance companies, and even got a charitable foundation that had all-but forgotten its Detroit roots to send millions back to Michigan.
At a time when affordability may be the most crucial issue on voters’ minds, Cox failed to make that the foundation of his campaign.
Instead, he larded his campaign website and rhetoric with as many MAGA talking points as he could.
When I asked him in May on Mackinac Island whether there was any way a Republican could win the primary without Trump’s support, Cox said: “I haven’t really thought about that, ’cause I just assume he’s gonna give it to me.”
When he dropped out of the race Friday, he said: “On June 22nd President Trump endorsed John James and lifted him out of a statistical tie with me. And while I did not fully appreciate it then, that endorsement placed him out of reach in a three-way Republican primary race.”
“That is the power of President Trump, and it is a testament to the enduring loyalty of Republican primary voters in Michigan to the President.”
If Cox was telling the truth on Mackinac when he said he wasn’t worried about whether a Republican could win without Trump because he planned to get Trump, he was lying later when he said he still could win after Trump picked James. Cox is too smart to believe otherwise.
Instead of leaning into his victories for Michigan consumers and highlighting the combative nature the former Marine displayed in a Free Press editorial board interview and two televised debates, Cox essentially auditioned for Trump.
We’ll never know if Cox could have won the primary without Trump’s imprimatur, but taking a different approach from the start may have created enough momentum to win over Trump — or at least keep him out of the race.
Running as his own man may have also paid dividends for Cox if he won the GOP nomination. Republican candidates closely associated with Trump may find his endorsement to be a mixed blessing if the president’s approval ratings remain low as gas prices soar and the War in Iran escalates.
Sunday morning quarterback
It’s way too easy to find fault with campaigns and candidates when you don’t know all of the forces and factors they faced. And after you’ve already seen how their strategy failed.
So, I readily accept that my roadmaps to victory could just provide different routes to a dead end.
But before you dismiss my punditry altogether, consider this: At least I made it out of my primary.
M.L. Elrick is a Pulitzer Prize- and Emmy Award-winning investigative reporter, director of student investigative reporting program Eye On Michigan, and host of the ML’s Soul of Detroit podcast. Contact him at mlelrick@freepress.com or follow him on X at @elrick, Facebook at ML Elrick and Instagram at ml_elrick
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Take it from a loser: I could have saved Cox and McMorrow’s campaigns
Reporting by M.L. Elrick, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
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By M.L. Elrick, Detroit Free Press | USA TODAY Network
