As California bakes through another summer of triple-digit temperatures, many residents are already looking ahead to cooler days. The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its long-range fall 2026 forecast, and while the publication predicts a cooler turn for much of the Pacific Coast, Californians shouldn’t expect a dramatic early-season shift.
The forecast comes as meteorologists closely monitor a developing El Niño that could have major implications for California’s weather later this year and into winter 2026-27.
While long-range forecasts should be viewed with caution, the Almanac’s outlook offers an early glimpse at what the season could hold as autumn approaches.
What does the Almanac forecast for California?
California falls within the Almanac’s Pacific Southwest region, which includes much of the state’s population centers.
For the Pacific Southwest, the publication predicts:
The forecast suggests Californians may have to wait until later in the season for more noticeable cooling, after another hot summer across much of the state.
The outlook also comes as forecasters are watching the development of El Niño in the tropical Pacific. Historically, stronger El Niño events can increase the chances of a more active storm track reaching California during the winter months, although experts stress that no two events are exactly alike.
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Could El Niño bring a wetter winter to California?
Possibly.
Federal forecasters say El Niño conditions are developing and could strengthen heading into the winter of 2026-27.
Past strong El Niño events have often favored wetter conditions across parts of California, particularly Southern California, by shifting the Pacific storm track farther south.
Potential California impacts could include:
However, NOAA officials emphasize that El Niño does not guarantee a wet winter, and seasonal outcomes can vary considerably from one event to the next.
For rest of country, what does the Old Farmer’s Almanac predict for fall 2026?
“Will our sweaters get more use this fall? It won’t feel like fall everywhere,” the Old Farmer’s Almanac states.
Across the country, the forecast calls for a mix of conditions, with some regions expected to turn wetter while others could remain drier than normal.
According to the forecast, warmer-than-average conditions are expected across parts of the nation’s interior from the Northern Plains through the Heartland and into the Deep South during September and October, suggesting drought-stressed areas may not see much relief as the season begins. Meanwhile, much of the eastern United States and Pacific Coast are expected to experience cooler-than-average weather.
Old Farmer’s Almanac fall forecast by region
How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has published long-range weather predictions for more than two centuries, using a proprietary forecasting method it says combines solar activity, climate patterns and historical weather trends. The publication boasts 80% accuracy, though some experts claim it’s closer to 50%.
Meteorologists often caution that forecasts made several months in advance carry significant uncertainty, especially at the local level.
When does fall 2026 begin?
The first official day of fall 2026 is Tuesday, Sept. 22, marking the autumnal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere.
The equinox occurs when the sun crosses the celestial equator, bringing nearly equal amounts of daylight and darkness around the world. After the equinox, days will continue to grow shorter and nights longer across Texas and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere until the winter solstice in December.
For meteorologists, however, fall begins earlier. The meteorological fall season starts Sept. 1 and runs through Nov. 30, aligning with the calendar months used to track seasonal weather patterns.
El Niño potential U.S. effects for fall 2026
A potentially powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean is drawing attention from climate scientists and long-range forecasters, who are watching how the pattern could influence weather around the globe.
Forecasters say it is still too early to determine exactly how the developing El Niño will affect the country, but past strong events provide clues.
When does El Niño start?
El Niño doesn’t start on a fixed date. It begins when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific warm above average and stay elevated for several months, signaling a shift in both ocean and atmospheric patterns.
They also don’t occur on a strict schedule. They tend to emerge irregularly every two to seven years, depending on how ocean temperatures, wind patterns and broader climate conditions evolve.
Most El Niño events typically form between March and June, strengthen through summer and into fall, peak between November and January, and fade in late winter and spring.
How long does El Niño last?
El Niño is usually a one-season-to-one-year event, not a multi-year climate phase like La Niña can sometimes appear to be in extended cycles, according to NOAA.
In the current outlook, conditions are already present. They are expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27, which suggests this event could persist from its development phase in 2026 into early 2027 before gradually weakening.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the nation as the Weather Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network and contributes to Texas Connect coverage across the state. She can be reached at baddison@usatodayco.com. Follow her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: California’s Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast turns cooler by October
Reporting by Brandi D. Addison and James Ward, USA TODAY NETWORK / Palm Springs Desert Sun
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Brandi D. Addison and James Ward, USA TODAY NETWORK | USA TODAY Network
