With mail ballots beginning to arrive in voters’ mailboxes across Florida’s 2nd Congressional District, four Democrats gathered July 11 at Tallahassee’s American Legion Hall at Lake Ella to sharpen their final pitch to primary voters.
There were a couple of elephants in the room for the debate.
The first was Florida Republican Party chair and 2nd District candidate Evan Power, who sat in the audience, seemingly scouting potential November opponents.
The second was an unspoken question hanging over the event: How can any Democrat translate strong support in Leon County into enough votes across the district’s 15 other counties, where the GOP is strong, which enabled Republicans to hold the seat for a decade.
The district is preparing to elect a new representative for the first time since 2016, following current U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn’s decision not to seek another term. The open race has crowded primaries in both parties and renewed interest in a district considered deeply red.
Democrats focus on costs, healthcare, accountability
The eight Republicans vying for the seat all pledge to support President Donald Trump and his agenda. The four Democrats – Yen Bailey, Nic Zateslo, Amanda Green and Brice Barnes – all agree the Trump agenda has failed working families and that Congress has become disconnected from ordinary voters.
“The system’s broken, and we all know it,” said Zateslo, a technology consultant who pointed to rising costs for childcare, housing and health care.
Barnes, an affordable-housing executive and longtime community advocate, said the consequences can be seen across the district. “We are watching the collapse of rural America right now,” she said. “It’s not just bad out there. It’s collapsing.”
Green, a former international development contractor, said Congress has become “corrupted.”
“They are far more concerned about the next stock that they’re going to trade, and the billionaire whose wealth they’re going to protect, and the corporation that’s going to pay for their re-election campaigns, than any single one of us in here,” Green said.
Bailey, the Democratic nominee in 2024, said corruption can be seen in Congress’s failure to hold the president and federal officials accountable. She said Congress has remained silent while public confidence in government erodes.
“We need fighters,” Bailey said. “We need a government that works for people and not just billionaires and big corporations.”
None of the candidates addressed the central question: How does a Democrat win?
The challenge: How to win beyond Leon County
Leon County is the district’s political outlier and Democratic stronghold. The last three Democratic congressional candidates carried the county with 53% (Bob Rackleff in 2018), 60%, (Al Lawson in 2022) and 57% (Bailey in 2024) of the vote.
But Dunn received around 60% of the vote districtwide in each of his five successful congressional campaigns.
Since 2016, when former congresswoman Gwen Graham, D-Tallahassee, vacated the seat to run for governor, Democrats have struggled to persuade voters outside Leon that they understand their concerns, ranging from agriculture and hurricane recovery to veterans’ services, healthcare, economic development and infrastructure.
For any Democrat to be competitive in November, the nominee will likely need to cut into Republican margins, reconnect with rural voters and win over independents who have drifted away from the party over the past decade.
Candidates hinted at a strategy without fully articulating one. Barnes argued voters outside Leon are responding to economic concerns rather than partisan labels. “It’s not about party alignment for them,” Barnes said. “It’s about policy alignment.”
Green talked about building a coalition that includes farmers, labor unions and even some Republicans. Bailey emphasized economic opportunity and constituent service. Zateslo said Democrats must engage voters respectfully regardless of party affiliation and pointed to more than 80 “living-room meetings” he’s held across the district.
Some members of his family “are Trump supporters,” Zateslo said. “I don’t think they hate the country. I think they made a different decision than us.”
All four Democrats endorsed some version of Medicare for All, universal healthcare or expanded Medicaid, and blamed corporate influence for rising costs and declining public trust in government.
On immigration, candidates repeatedly criticized federal enforcement policies. Zateslo called for investigations into actions taken by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials and said anyone found to have broken the law should face criminal consequences.
“If illegal actions have occurred, they need to be upheld with the force of law,” Zateslo said. “If investigations find something illegal, there needs to be severe consequences.”
Indeed, the only policy disagreement among the Democrats seemed to be who can win in November.
Republicans see clear contrast
Power said the forum highlighted the stark contrast between the two parties. “It was nice to hear them,” Power said. “All the Democratic candidates made clear they don’t share the values of north Florida. Their ideas, from abolishing ICE to Medicaid for All, will not help make Florida more affordable.”
Power said the eventual Republican nominee will focus on economic issues.
“I look forward to communicating a positive message on how we can make north Florida affordable and prosperous by empowering our residents, not making government larger,” he said.
Leon County Democratic Party chair Ryan Ray said Power scouting the opposition is “a clear sign District 2 is truly in play this November.”
Democrats are expected to carry Leon County. What will determine who succeeds Dunn in Washington is whether they can persuade enough voters in the district’s other 15 counties to vote for a Democrat.
James Call is a member of the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jcall@tallahassee.com. Follow on X: @CallTallahassee.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Inside the debate: Can these Florida Dems flip a red U.S. House seat?
Reporting by James Call, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Tallahassee Democrat
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By James Call, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
