Will activity in the tropics pick up soon?
Some forecasters are saying there’s is a low chance for something to pop up in the Gulf this weekend or early next week, even though the National Hurricane Center is saying no tropical development is expected over the next seven days.
Meanwhile, there’s no relief from the heat, especially for residents in South and Southwest Florida, where heat advisories were issued for July 14.
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s, with a heat index between 105 and 110, according to the National Weather Service.
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Florida residents shouldn’t be concerned about the two tropical waves out there.
“The first waves that come off Africa are usually too far south, and there’s often too much dry air and wind shear for them to develop,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email. “There’s no real concern with these early-season tropical waves.”
That doesn’t mean to ignore them.
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“It will be especially important to closely monitor every tropical wave this season,” DaSilva said.
“Some tropical waves may remain disorganized while crossing the Atlantic, only to develop and intensify once they reach the exceptionally warm waters near the United States.”
In the eastern Pacific, the tropics remain active, with the National Hurricane Center monitoring five disturbances.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 14.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What’s changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No. Saharan dust and strong wind shear has been making environmental conditions difficult for anything tropical to develop.
That may change, according to both AccuWeather and FoxWeather.
“The official word from the National Hurricane Center is that no tropical development is expected in the Atlantic, the Caribbean, or the Gulf for at least the next week,” said Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross.
“If you follow these things, however, you’ve probably seen chatter about the models showing a system developing in the Gulf over the weekend or early next week.”
“Indications are that the wind shear will drop in the northeastern Gulf this weekend into the start of next week,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
“This, combined with exceptionally warm sea-surface temperatures, about 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit above historical average for this time of year, creates favorable conditions for tropical development.
“For a tropical depression or storm to develop, a low-pressure area would first have to organize, acquire tropical characteristics and remain over water long enough to strengthen.”
“The European AI model, which is a product of the European Center that also runs the traditional European model, wants to spin something up near Florida’s Big Bend or over the northern Florida peninsula over the weekend,” Norcross said.
“The Google DeepMind AI model gives development a 10-15% chance, and other models show little or no development over the water.
“There’s a high chance a low-pressure system will be over North Florida or the Gulf in about a week. But it’s going to be induced by a sharp dip in the jet stream, in other words by non-tropical processes. And most models indicate that whatever forms is likely to pretty quickly move north over the Southeast next week,” Norcross said.
Bottom line: Forecasters are watching it but dry air and “hostile” upper-level winds make a significant tropical system nothing to be concerned about, Norcross said.
The only named storm so far this year has been Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed June 17. On average, the second named storm of the Atlantic season forms by July 17.
The second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be Bertha.
What impacts could Florida feel this weekend?
“Heavy rain would likely be the main impact from this storm, likely along the Florida Panhandle and the surrounding southeastern U.S.,” DaSilva said.
“Depending on the organization and intensity of the storm, heavy rain could also move northward into other Southeast states.”
Forecasters lower predictions for hurricane season, but Florida residents should stay prepared
AccuWeather and Colorado State University have lowered their predictions for the number of named storms expected for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
➤ Hurricane season predictions updated. What can Florida expect?
NOAA will update its seasonal forecast Aug. 6.
Here are the latest predictions from AccuWeather and Colorado State University:
Heat advisories issued for parts of Florida as heat index climbs toward 110
Heat advisories have been issued July 14 for five counties across South and Southwest Florida.
Hot conditions will continue over the next few days, the National Weather Service Miami said.
High temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s with a heat index of 105 to 110 across most metro areas of South Florida.
More showers and storms are expected in Panhandle, bringing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, according to the National Weather Service Tallahassee. Some areas could see up to 3 inches, but most likely amounts are for 1-2 inches.
East-central Florida is forecast to see another stormy afternoon and evening, according to the National Weather Service Melbourne. Highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices ranging from 102 to 107.
National Hurricane Center tracking 2 tropical waves, no disturbances
There were no disturbances listed by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. July 14, and none were expected over the next seven days.
There were two tropical waves out there:
Tropical activity very active in Pacific, with tropical depressions expected soon
In the Pacific, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring four disturbances, including
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
‘It only takes one.’ Always be prepared for hurricanes
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall tomake it an active season,” CSU said. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
“The northern and eastern Gulf, the Carolina coast and the western Caribbean remain areas where rapid tropical development can occur,” according to AccuWeather. “Even in a below-average year for tropical storms and hurricanes, it only takes one storm to cause significant loss of life and catastrophic damage.”
“We want people to pay attention to the forecast, because those warm waters can allow for rapid intensification, and the forecast can evolve rapidly,” DaSilva said.
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“We could see development very quickly close to home, so it’s something people need to watch closely.”
Florida weather radar for July 14, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Is there a tax holiday in Florida for hurricane supplies?
No. On Aug. 1, 2025, the sales tax on specific hurricane supplies was permanently removed.
Among the items now permanently exempt from sales taxes are:
Bottled water, first aid kits, and many food items purchased at the grocery store were tax-freeprior to the passage of the permanent exemptions added in 2025.
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Is tropical lull over for Florida? See what forecasters are saying
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
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By Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
