The college football season is roughly two months away.
Florida football is now under new leadership with first-year coach Jon Sumrall, who will make his debut against Florida Atlantic at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Sept. 5.
The Gators come off a 4-8 season that resulted in the midseason firing of Billy Napier. Despite the forgettable 2025 season, Sumrall has generated positive momentum with the hiring of coordinators Buster Faulkner and Brad White, as well as the retention of UF’s star players, most notably running back Jaden Baugh.
Regardless, Sumrall has an uphill climb in his first season at the helm, but the first-year coach hasn’t shied away from expectations for the program.
Here’s a breakdown of what the odds makers and analytics suggest will happen in Sumrall’s first season at the helm.
ESPN’s SP+
SP+ is an efficiency metric that grades every college football team based primarily on efficiency, explosiveness and field position. That’s obviously difficult in the offseason, when there are vast ranges of unknowns, especially for teams with new coaching staffs such as Florida.
The SEC is the highest-ranked conference in SP+, but the rating has not translated into national championships for the last three years.
Georgia is the highest-ranked SEC team at No. 4. The Bulldogs are followed by Texas (No. 6), Texas A&M (No. 6), LSU (No. 10), Alabama (No.11), Oklahoma (No. 12), Ole Miss (No. 15), Tennessee (No. 16), Missouri (No. 19), Florida (No. 20), South Carolina (No. 25), Auburn (No. 26), Vanderbilt (No. 31), Arkansas (No. 46), Mississippi State (No. 52) and Kentucky (No. 54).
What the odds say about Florida’s season
The Gators have not won the SEC since 2008, and according to DraftKings, that’s not expected to change this coming season. After winning the conference the last two seasons, Georgia is once again the preseason favorite, with Texas just behind the Bulldogs.
Florida has the ninth-best odds to win the conference this coming season. Notably, BetMGM lists the Gators at +375 to make the College Football Playoff and +6000 to win the national championship. FanDuel projects Florida’s win total at 7.5.
Here’s a look at the current odds via DraftKings.
Reach Florida Gators writer Andrew Abadie at AAbadie@usatodayco.com or on X (formerly Twitter) at @AndrewAbadie. You can also find him on Facebook at Andrew Abadie Sports Reporter or on Instagram @andrewabadie_sports.
This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: What odds, metrics say about Florida football’s upcoming season
Reporting by Andrew Abadie, Gainesville Sun / The Gainesville Sun
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Andrew Abadie, Gainesville Sun | USA TODAY Network
