As of this writing, we’ve been in a war with Iran for three months ― since Feb. 26 ― and despite repetitions of “a deal is close,” “a deal is imminent” and now “a deal is signed,” we’re still in this thing.
From the start, this conflict has revealed without doubt the dangers of wars fueled by testosterone, self-love and outright foolhardiness.
This outcome was foreordained. We launched the conflict off the backfoot. Our entire foreign policy, at the strategic level, has been hamstrung from the start by a blind disregard for former lessons learned in the past, searingly deficient in-country knowledge of our enemies’ intentions or planning, and massive self-deception that none of that mattered.
Tactically, the entire design and execution stages of the conflict were done in the dark: a darkness conjured by a conspiracy of gutting the intelligence community (both in experienced leadership and on-the-ground analysis). This was buttressed by the false belief that we were simply more powerful, smarter and “morally superior” to our nemesis.
I’ll amend that slightly: We are morally superior to our nemesis. This was and is not false. Iran’s regime is not only antithetical to our national interest (which does not make it immoral) but an oppressive, brutal autocracy that murders its citizens for the slightest deviation from its twisted norms (and that is immoral).
But moral superiority does not make us smarter or more powerful.
Nor was morality the prime reason for the war. The reason was ― “in the breach”, as it were ― to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear capabilities. For which we already had a treaty, abandoned with ugly fanfare in 2018, which looked an awful lot like the current “deal” this administration may be trying to sell.
Now the good news. Despite its appalling social and economic costs ― or perhaps because of them ― there is now a chance for a real resolution. No-one wants this to continue. The limits of what we’re able to do to force Iran to our will, and the lengths to which the Iranians are able to go to resist it are both plain. Stalemate.
Trump is in a trap. The war has caused three things he hates ― economic turmoil with rising inflation, tremendous military cost and (politically his worst enemy) skyrocketing energy prices.
Iran is cornered in that trap, too, despite their smirking about having the U.S. over the proverbial barrel. Already economically devastated by sanctions, oil revenues are at rock bottom, their fragile political infrastructure has been sorely weakened, and their surrogates are on the run pretty much everywhere from Yemen to Lebanon.
There has rarely been such a good chance for a real “deal.” For both sides, war, as currently constituted, is no longer a real option in the region. Further bloodshed will be a wasted effort. Both have chosen to quit the field, and quitting is the best idea.
But can Trump truly take advantage of this situation?
I think so. He’s not saying it directly, but if his core business instincts are at least partly intact, he knows it in his bones. Sometimes the best “deal” is one where you get what turns out to be a good deal of what’s good for all.
It is not time for a victory celebration. The limits of U.S. force majeure as a policy are now obvious. This war has been a deadly mistake for all sorts of reasons ― both tragically wasteful of human lives (some of them American) and politically destructive. But there is every reason to extract from this mess an enduring, lengthy settlement.
That it may come to closely resemble Obama’s treaty of 2015 should not be a reason to spurn it. Obama’s team was right to negotiate it, it worked reasonably well and reinstating it in a new form is not the worst outcome.
The president deserves our support in this. A win for him, here, is a win for all of us.
R. Bruce Anderson is Professor of American and Comparative Politics, the Dr. Sarah D. and L. Kirk McKay Jr. Endowed Chair in American History, Government, and Civics, and Miller Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Florida Southern College in Lakeland. He is also a columnist for The Ledger and the USA Today Network.
This article originally appeared on The Ledger: Who won the Iran war? Was there a winner at all? | R. Bruce Anderson
Reporting by R. Bruce Anderson, Ledger columnist / The Ledger
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By R. Bruce Anderson, Ledger columnist | USA TODAY Network
