The tropics are quiet right now, with no activity expected over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
But AccuWeather forecasters are keeping an eye on an area close to Florida and the United States which shows some potential for tropical development next week. It’s the same area where Chantal was born, said AccuWeather lede hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
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Saharan dust and wind shear are helping to prevent any storm development.
Elsewhere, the National Hurricane Center is tracking four tropical waves.
The next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter.
Today’s weather forecast across Florida calls for showers and thunderstorms across several portions of the state, temperatures in the 90s and heat indices hitting as high as 107.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m., July 10:
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on four tropical waves in the Atlantic basin:
Saharan dust, wind shear limiting tropical development
At least in the short term, the tropics should remain quiet, according to both the National Hurricane Center and AccuWeather.
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“There’s simply too much wind and too much African dust coming across the Atlantic right now,” DaSilva said via email.
“There’s a lot of African dust, which is common this time of the year. June and July typically have the most African dust coming across the Atlantic Basin, and this year is no different.”
Could something develop close to Florida mid mid-July?
There is a low risk of a tropical depression or tropical storm forming from July 15-18, according to AccuWeather.
“It’s in the northeastern Gulf and off the southeast coast, a very similar area to where we outlooked Chantal,” DaSilva said.
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“I think it’s a similar setup, but not the exact same thing. We are going to have a cold front coming down in that area and you can get a little bit of spin on the end of it. It looks like there could be a little more wind shear with this setup, potentially, and that could prevent development.
“Either way, it looks like over the entirety of the Atlantic Basin, if anything is going to develop here over the next couple of weeks, it’s likely to be really close to home. It’s likely to be that what we call homegrown tropical development in the northeastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast,” DaSilva said.
“Much like Chantal, if something develops, it’s unlikely that it would become a hurricane. I don’t think it would have enough time to develop, and also it’s got to deal with some of that wind shear. If anything develops, it would likely be a tropical depression or tropical storm, and that’s if anything develops at all.”
Historically, July tropical systems develop close to the United States, in the Gulf, Caribbean and in the southwestern Atlantic. Later in the season, they form out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
If there is tropical depression or storm, could it impact Florida?
If development of the system occurs in the Atlantic east of Florida, “it may once again drift northward toward the U.S. coast,” AccuWeather said.
“Should development occur on the Gulf side of Florida, which is looking more plausible at this time, steering breezes could guide the area of interest westward along the northern Gulf coast.
“In either case, showers and thunderstorms can increase in coastal areas and adjacent waters offshore even if a storm center fails to form. Should a center form, more substantial rain and wind, with building surf, would unfold,” AccuWeather said.
2025 hurricane season so far
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Here’s when this year’s named storms have developed, compared to historical averages:
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Florida weather radar for July 10, 2025
Florida weather forecast for July 10, 2025
Florida weather forecast for July 10, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
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This story has been updated with new information.
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Will tropical storm form in Gulf next week? See latest forecast from AccuWeather, NOAA
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Sarasota Herald-Tribune
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
