A heat wave could raise temperatures up to 10 degrees above normal, increasing the threat of wildfires over the next several days, authorities said.
Highs could start to climb on July 8, and after a possible break on the weekend, continue into early next week, said Devin Black, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Oxnard. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the hottest days, he said.
As conditions heat up, the threat of wildfires inland will increase, Black said.
Locally, the forecast calls for highs up to 5 to 10 degrees above average inland, possibly coming close to triple digits around Ojai and mid to low 90s in the Fillmore, Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks areas. Along the coast, however, temperatures likely will stay around the 70s to low 80s. A marine layer will help offset the hot, dry conditions elsewhere, officials said.
Humidity levels are expected to drop during the heat, Black said. As the grasses and brush dry out, the potential for large fires increases.
Already, the region is seeing the effects of drier brush. Crews are continuing to battle the Madre Fire in San Luis Obispo, which had burned around 80,000 acres as of July 7. Los Padres National Forest officials have issued seasonal fire restrictions, and locally, the Ventura County Fire Department reported dropping moisture levels in vegetation.
What is the wildfire risk in Ventura County?
The fire department samples the moisture content every two weeks to help predict fire potential. In wet conditions, as the vegetation becomes saturated, the moisture content can exceed 100%. Then in the summer, the numbers fall.
Samples from July 1 had dropped to 76%, slightly below the historic average for this time of year, according to the department’s latest report. That’s still above what is considered critically dry, but conditions could worsen after a string of hot days, said fire Capt. Ryan Matheson.
The department canceled a prescribed burn scheduled for this week in a canyon near Santa Paula, part of the footprint of the massive Thomas Fire in 2017. There’s a small window for such controlled burns, officials said. Conditions must be dry enough for the fire to be effective, but not so dry that the risk outweighs the benefit.
How the area’s mediocre rain year will affect the fire season remains to be seen.
“Every year, we anticipate a busy fire season in Southern California,” Matheson said.
What is the wildfire forecast for Southern California?
Before this winter, the county and much of Southern California had marked back-to-back years of higher than normal rainfall. Storms drenched the area and boosted water supplies that had reached record lows during a previous string of dry years.
But as of early July, local rainfall totals are close to half of normal for this point in the 2024-25 water year, which runs from October through September.
For months, nearly all of the county has been classified in at least severe drought, according to maps from the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The National Interagency Fire Center’s outlook shows the area may see a higher-than-normal potential for large fires by fall.
Cheri Carlson covers the environment and county government for the Ventura County Star. Reach her at cheri.carlson@vcstar.com or 805-437-0260.
This article originally appeared on Ventura County Star: Forecast calls for hot, dry conditions, increasing threat of wildfires in SoCal
Reporting by Cheri Carlson, Ventura County Star / Ventura County Star
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